Blue Jays picks and props vs. Tigers July 7: Bet on offence in Manoah’s MLB return

Fresh off a sweep of the Chicago White Sox, the Toronto Blue Jays will wrap up the first half on the road against the Detroit Tigers starting Friday night.

The pregame narrative: No storyline is bigger than the return of Alek Manoah. Toronto’s Opening Day starter will make his first start since getting demoted to the minors. It’s a soft landing spot for Manoah, but we still don’t trust him versus a Detroit team that’s 10 games under .500.

See how we’re betting on this game in our Blue Jays picks for July 7 vs. the Tigers.

MLB odds as of 12:29 p.m. ET on 07/07/2023.

Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers

Best Bet: Over 9 runs (-121)

Detroit’s starter isn’t without his own question marks, but we’ll start with Toronto’s.

While the Blue Jays were conceivably encouraged by what they saw out of Manoah in the minors, we can’t get behind him or the team tonight.

The big righty has been routinely torched in the majors this season and one exceptional start against Double-A hitters (10 strikeouts over five innings last week) is not enough reason for us to buy in.

Manoah has compiled a 6.36 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 13 starts. He has lacked control, been burned by the long ball and struggled to put hitters away on strikes.

It’s a bad combination that has led to ghastly numbers, including a -0.6 WAR, per FanGraphs, the highest walk rate and the second-highest FIP among starters who have thrown at least 50 innings.

This all leads to the Blue Jays likely utilizing their bullpen more than they would like after yesterday’s doubleheader forced the group to collectively throw eight frames thanks to an extra-inning game to kick off the day.

We expect the Tigers to get runners on and capitalize and we believe the Jays will get theirs, too, against Alex Faedo and a Tigers team that allows the eighth-most runs per game.

Faedo has been out since the end of May with a finger injury and only made one rehab start, throwing 57 pitches on July 2. He got roughed up and has a 5.54 ERA over 17 MLB starts.

Detroit, which cashes overs at the third-highest rate in the AL, will likely have to lean on its bullpen, too, and it’s a group that’s far from elite.

Key stat: The over is 7-4-2 on this total in Manoah’s 13 starts.

Quick pick

Detroit +1.5 (-134): The Tigers have solid plus-money odds on the moneyline (+120) but their lack of an inspiring starter makes them a far safer play as a run line underdog.

Toronto is 4-9 in games started by Manoah this season, losing each of the last seven. Two of the wins were by one run and they needed nine-plus runs to win two of them.

Detroit is a respectable 45-41 on the run line (top 10 in MLB), while the Jays are 38-50 (second-worst in the AL).

The Blue Jays have beaten up on non-division opponents but this isn’t the spot to back them behind Manoah at -141.

Jake Rogers over 0.5 hits (-121): Asking a player to record a lone hit at this price will always get our attention and the Tigers catcher has turned his season around. We see value here.

Rogers was horrific to start the year (.156/.255/.385 through May) but has slashed .267/.362/.567 since the start of June and has hit in the top five of the order in three of his last six games.

Against Manoah and a bullpen that worked overtime yesterday, we’ll take a chance here.