Padres vs. Blue Jays Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The San Diego Padres (44-50) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (53-41) to open a three-game series at Rogers Centre, with first pitch at 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday. The Padres are coming off a series defeat to the Phillies, and the Blue Jays a series win over the Diamondbacks.

The Padres are projected as a tight favorite (-115 to win on the moneyline) against the Blue Jays (-104). The contest has a set total of 9.5.

The insights in the article below reference odds valid as of July 18, 2023 at 3:18 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Padres vs Blue Jays Betting Lines

Padres Betting Insights

• The Padres have been favorites in 69 games this season and won 36 (52.2%) of those contests.
• San Diego has a record of 34-31, a 52.3% win rate, when favored by -115 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The Padres have a 53.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• San Diego and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 38 of 94 opportunities.
• The Padres are 45-49-0 ATS in their 94 games with a spread this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Blue Jays Betting Insights

• The Blue Jays have been victorious in 12, or 50%, of the 24 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Toronto has a mark of 10-9 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by -104 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Blue Jays have an implied victory probability of 51% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Toronto’s games have gone over the total in 41 of its 94 opportunities.
• The Blue Jays have an against the spread record of 43-51-0 in 94 games with a line this season.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Joe Musgrove

• Musgrove and his team have a record of 8-6-0 against the spread when he starts.
• The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, July 9, when he threw six scoreless innings against the New York Mets while allowing three hits.
• Musgrove has 12 starts in a row of five innings or more.
• He has three appearances with no earned runs allowed in 14 chances this season.
• Musgrove’s team has been victorious in 75% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 9-3.
• Musgrove’s team is 9-5 when he starts this season.
• Games started by Musgrove have a 5-6-3 record at hitting the over this season.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Alek Manoah

• Manoah (2-7 with a 5.91 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Blue Jays, his 15th of the season.
• His last time out was on Friday, July 7 against the Detroit Tigers, when the righty went six innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing five hits.
• Manoah enters the matchup with six outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
• In two of his 14 total appearances this season he has not surrendered an earned run.
• The Blue Jays were the underdog on the moneyline for four Manoah starts this season — they lost every game.
• Manoah’s team has a 5-9 record in his starts this season.
• Manoah has had 14 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and 10 of those games hit the over.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Padres Hitting Trends

• The Padres are 20-19 this season in games when they crush two or more long balls.
• San Diego has gone 15-8 in its 23 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
• The club has racked up eight or more hits 50 times this season, and has a 33-17 record in those games.
• San Diego is 36-7 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
• The Padres are 23-17 in the 40 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

• They are 20-10 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
• Toronto has gone 14-4 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
• They have a record of 48-26 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
• Toronto has a 39-11 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
• In 22 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 15-7

Padres vs. Blue Jays Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Blue Jays (-104)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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