Blue Jays picks and props vs. Rangers Sept. 11: Bet on Toronto to take series opener
A huge American League series begins in Toronto tonight.
The pregame narrative: The Blue Jays are short home favourites as they welcome the Texas Rangers to Rogers Centre for the start of a four-game set. Texas is on the outside of the playoff picture, trailing the Seattle Mariners by a half-game for the final wild card and sitting one back of Toronto in the loss column.
Check out how we're betting on the series opener in our Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on September 11.
MLB oddsas of 1:01 p.m. ET on 09/11/2023.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers
Best Bet: Dane Dunning over 15.5 outs (-121)
Dunning's recent body of work ahead of a road matchup against a hot team creates some pause here but context is important.
No bullpen has thrown more innings than the Rangers this month. Their last two starters didn't get through three innings and Max Scherzer only delivered 3.1 two games before that.
Dunning's last outing was a bloodbath but Texas let him wear it, leaving him in for 5.1 innings despite allowing nine runs on 11 hits after he relieved Nathan Eovaldi in the second.
Texas desperately needs length as it's in the midst of a stretch of games in 13 consecutive days. If Dunning can keep the Rangers in this game, they should be motivated to ride him out.
Eovaldi doesn't pitch until the final game of the series but he's only made two starts since returning from injury and hasn't pitched out of the third inning in either. That has compromised the bullpen and also means Texas needs to prepare for heavy usage out of the 'pen in the series finale.
Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery should theoretically provide length in the next two games of this series, but there's no question the Rangers would prefer that trend begin tonight.
Dunning hasn't cleared this number in four consecutive outings but he did do so in nine of 11 starts before that, including once against the Blue Jays. So this is within reach and the odds agree with that, with the over and under in the same price range for his total outs prop.
Key stat: The right-hander has topped this mark in 13 of his 21 starts.
Quick picks
George Springer over 1.5 total bases (+102): Springer is on fire and firmly entrenched back in the leadoff spot.
The veteran is hitting .343/.465/.571 this month, notching two-plus bases in more than half his games.
He has a .917 OPS in 12 games since moving back to the leadoff spot, which ensures him extra plate appearances against Dunning and Texas' bullpen (AL-high 7.35 ERA in September).
Jays to win (-132): This feels like a good price to back the Blue Jays at. They have the better pitcher on the mound, are at home and they're playing terrific baseball.
Toronto is 8-2 in its last 10 and taking on a Rangers team that is 15 games above .500 at home and one under on the road. Texas has gone 6-16 over its last 22 to fall out of a playoff spot.
The Blue Jays are 13-9 over that same stretch and turn to Chris Bassitt, who has been dynamite at Rogers Centre. Bassitt has a 2.80 ERA at home and Toronto is 8-4 in his last 12 starts.
Dunning carries a 6.39 road ERA into the outing.
