Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

The Texas Rangers (78-64) and Toronto Blue Jays (80-63) open a 4-game set Monday at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rangers lead 2-1

The Rangers won 9-4 as -237 home favorites vs. the Oakland Athletics Sunday. Rangers 2B Marcus Semien finished with 2 HRs and 4 hits for the 2nd time in 4 games, and Texas won back-to-back outings for the 1st time in September. The Rangers are a half-game back of the Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot.

The Blue Jays completed a 3-game sweep vs. the Kansas City Royals with a 5-2 win as -169 home favorites Sunday. CF Kevin Kiermaier hit a go-ahead solo HR in the 7th inning as Toronto moved a game ahead of the Mariners for the 2nd AL Wild Card.

Rangers at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Dane Dunning vs. RHP Chris Bassitt

Dunning (9-6, 3.88 ERA) makes his 22nd start and 31st appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 146 innings.

• Last outing: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 14-1 home loss vs. Houston Astros Tuesday
• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-5 loss in 10 innings at New York Mets on Aug. 30
• 2023 road stats: 3-4, 3.51 ERA (74 1/3 IP, 29 ER) in 12 starts and 4 relief appearances
• 2023 vs. Blue Jays: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 4-2 home victory on June 17
• Career vs. Blue Jays: 2-0, 3.74 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in 4 starts

Bassitt (14-7, 3.69 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 173 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 7-1 victory at Athletics Tuesday
• 2023 home stats: 7-3, 2.80 ERA (90 IP, 28 ER) in 14 starts
• 2023 vs. Rangers: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 5 R (3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 1 start, an 11-7 road loss on June 18
• Career vs. Rangers: 5-2, 3.32 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 23 ER) in 10 starts and 4 relief appearances

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Rangers at Blue Jays odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Rangers at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Rangers 3

The BLUE JAYS (-135) have won 8 of their last 10 outings and allow an MLB-best 3.66 earned runs per game this season, according to TeamRankings.com.

The Rangers exploded for 9 runs last time out but had scored just 3 or fewer in their previous 4 games.

Bassitt has been much better at home this season and should set Toronto up for a win vs. this Rangers team that is just 6-16 in its last 22 games.

BET BLUE JAYS (-135).

Toronto has not been blowing teams out at Rogers Centre this season and is just 24-36 on the run line as a home favorite. Texas +1.5 (-175) will likely hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Toronto ML is the better play.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

The Under is 33-23-4 (58.9%) this season when the Blue Jays are home favorites. Bassitt has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 13 starts and should be able to keep this game low-scoring as the Under hits for the 3rd straight Blue Jays game.