Blue Jays picks and props vs. Red Sox, July 1: Expect fireworks from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

SUPER BOOST: Blue Jays to score 6+ runs & Kikuchi to record 6+ Ks (+450, was +300). Click here to bet

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox for a Canada Day showdown and we expect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to supply the fireworks.

The pregame narrative: Toronto managed just three hits in Friday’s 5-0 loss but we’re banking on more offence out of the Jays today. Guerrero is heating up and he’s a good bet to hit for power against a struggling Kutter Crawford.

MLB odds as of 10:45 a.m. ET on 07/01/2023.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best Bet: Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases (-115)

Guerrero was held hitless last night but he was only a few feet away from notching his fourth home run in the past seven games.

That blast carried a .780 expected batting average, according to Baseball Savant, while his fourth-inning groundout had a .480 xBA. 

But enough about bad luck, that’s just baseball. Guerrero has cleared this mark in five of the past seven games — with three home runs and three doubles in that span — and has a great record in limited at-bats against Boston’s starting pitcher.

That’s enough for us to back Vladdy at a reasonably priced -115.

Guerrero is 4-for-7 against Crawford with all four hits being singles. Those meetings were back when the right was coming out of Boston’s bullpen. He was moved to the starting rotation on June 3 and has posted a 4.71 ERA across five starts.

Crawford relies heavily on a fastball (38.8%) and cutter (28.6%) combo and those are pitches Guerrero eats against. Toronto’s slugger is slashing .336/.422/.511 against fastballs this season with 14 extra-base hits.

Key stat: Guerrero has 20 total bases in his last seven games.

Quick pick

Yes, run first inning (-120): Crawford has allowed this Blue Jays lineup to hit a collective .378 against him in 37 at-bats. We think he’s going to be in trouble early and are bullish on Toronto putting up a run or two in the first inning.

Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Jays and while he’s solid for the most part, the first inning has tended to be a struggle.

The lefty owns a 4.50 ERA in the opening frame with eight runs scored in 16 IP.