Blue Jays vs. Pirates picks and odds: Behind Bassitt, Toronto should start strong
A pair of slumping teams meet in Pittsburgh tonight as the Pirates host the Toronto Blue Jays.
The pregame narrative: The Jays have lost five in a row while the Pirates have lost four in a row, so something’s gotta give. We’re focused on the first half of tonight’s game, though, backing Toronto to hold a lead at the five-inning mark.
MLB odds as of 9:00 a.m. ET on 05/05/23.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates picks
Best Bet: Blue Jays to lead after five innings (-114)
Highs and lows are natural in a baseball season, and as the Blue Jays’ bullpen goes through a low point right now we’re looking to steer clear.
So instead, backing the Jays to lead at the first-five mark is our top play. In essence, it’s a bet on starter Chris Bassitt to keep rolling.
As Bassitt continues to put distance between himself and his dreadful season debut, here’s what the past five starts have looked like:
- 3.03 ERA
- .146 opponent BA
- 3-2 F5 record
Those are solid numbers, and they pair well with his performance against the Pirates last season. Bassitt, pitching for the Mets at the time, allowed just one run over 13 innings and held the lead at the F5 mark in both outings.
Toronto’s bullpen has been a problem during this losing skid, going 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA. To make matters worse, Zach Pop exited a relief outing yesterday with a hamstring injury.
For the week prior to the losing skid, Jays relievers went 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA. So there’s an ebb and flow to this. But right now we’d prefer a bet that hopefully avoids the bullpen altogether.
Key stat: The Blue Jays have led at the F5 mark in each of Bassitt’s past three starts.
Quick pick
Blue Jays first to 4 runs (-129): Tailing Toronto to be the first to a certain run total is another way to expect some early-game success. It also allows us to tap into the team’s solid production against Pittsburgh’s Rich Hill.
Jays hitters have a .279 batting average and .529 slugging percentage against Hill across 68 at-bats — and just a 13.9% K-rate to go with it.
Toronto has scored four-plus runs in eight of its past 11 games, and we think the visitors will be first to reach that mark tonight.
