Blue Jays vs. Tigers Picks, Predictions & Odds

sportsbookreview.com

07 July 2023

Blue Jays vs. Tigers Picks, Predictions & Odds

Alek Manoah comes back to the big leagues as the Toronto Blue Jays face the Detroit Tigers on Friday. Let's examine the matchup with our Blue Jays-Tigers pick based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

We may one day look back at Alek Manoah's 2023 journey as the ultimate redemption story. Or it could be the beginning of the end. Or maybe it'll be a forgettable blip and he'll regress in a normal and not implosive fashion, and be a serviceable major-league pitcher.

Everything and anything feels possible, and it's all felt unprecedented from the beginning.

In July 2022, Manoah was preparing to head to the All-Star Game, and he then brought both the fun and the punchies to the mound.

Then he went from finishing third in Cy Young voting to being unable to record more than an out during his most recent MLB start. He was sent all the way down to something called the Florida Complex League as a result.

Now he's back and gets an inviting matchup against the Detroit Tigers. But what version of Manoah will we see?

Here is our best Blue Jays-Tigers pick for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Blue Jays vs. Tigers pick

Alek Manoah Over 4.5 hits allowed (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Tigers are beyond a soft landing spot for a struggling pitcher. They're a memory foam pillow placed on top of a giant waterbed lined with cuddly stuffed animals.

The club is flirting with the Oakland Athletics tier of offense in every way. The Tigers rank 28th in OPS (.670), runs (339), and batting average (.231), and 24th in home runs (81). But while that will clearly help Manoah and ease him back into the big leagues, he hasn't exactly been feasting against weak competition. Mostly because even mediocre major-league hitters don't swing at balls in the other batter's box.

Manoah faced these same Tigers during his third start of the season before the wheels truly fell off. It wasn't a fiery wreck on the level of his other duds, but he still issued five walks against a team that tries really hard to not accept free passes (the Tigers rank 19th in walks). It was one of a whopping seven starts in 2023 when Manoah has allowed four-plus walks. His walk rate sits at a quadruple-take-inducing 14.9%

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

That wildness and lack of control is the root of Manoah's problems, leading to plenty of poor counts for a hurler without an overpowering fastball, and ideal hitting opportunities. Consequently, he's given up an astronomical .289 batting average against.

Sure, some poor luck has been involved, as is the case for any pitcher since baseball can be weird and unforgiving. But Manoah has earned that putrid standing, as his expected batting average against is only a few ticks lower at .285 while ranking in the bottom 8% of the league.

It was encouraging to see Manoah thrive in Double-A while recording 10 strikeouts over five innings, but it's difficult to place significant emphasis on that performance. Manoah should be blowing away lower-level hitters, and long term he may return to doing that in the majors. But we've seen a large enough sample size in 2023 to question whether he can be competitive in MLB right now, regardless of the opponent.

It's exciting to see a pitcher filled with swagger and maximum good vibes back in the majors. But trust him to be effective and miss bats at your own peril.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers best odds

FanDuel (-118)

So far, four of our best sports betting sites are offering a total hits allowed market for Manoah, and three are heavily juicing the Over on 4.5.

That makes sense given the awful opposing batting average Manoah has allowed, and he's cleared this hits total in four of his previous seven MLB starts. Manoah even sailed past it in two of those outings while coughing up eight hits to the Boston Red Sox and seven to the Houston Astros over just a third of an inning.

However, despite all that and the recent face plants from Manoah, FanDuel is still offering a tasty -118. That's miles longer than our other best live betting sites, and it likely won't last.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers odds

Blue Jays vs. Tigers odds analysis

The Blue Jays opened as the -155 favorites, and they've since lengthened a little to -135 at our best sportsbooks. Toronto is currently getting 67% of the action.

Meanwhile, the total sits at nine through most of our best MLB betting sites, with FanDuel again a notable exception. That shop is currently sitting at 9.5, and it's therefore the destination for those who want to aggressively cash in while expecting fireworks during Manoah's return. FanDuel is featuring +100 odds on its higher total, while every other book is around -120 for the Over on 9 runs.