Tigers vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

12 April 2023

Tigers vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

The Toronto Blue Jays are big favorites once again over the dreadful Detroit Tigers, and starter Kevin Gausman is a huge reason why. Find out how our MLB betting picks are trying to extract some value out of this matchup.

The Toronto Blue Jays erased a 3-0 deficit last night in their home opener to win convincingly, 9-3, vs. the Detroit Tigers as a -265 favorite. The Jays enter tonight as -280 favorites with a total of 8.5 after last night’s five-homer performance.

Now the home side will send their most consistent pitcher in Kevin Gausman to the mound, and he could make quick work of this Detroit offense that is one of the weakest in all of baseball.

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Tigers vs. Blue Jays on Wednesday, April 12.

Tigers vs Blue Jays odds

Tigers vs Blue Jays predictions

There's a lot to like in this game from a Toronto perspective. Many of offensive props are showing value as Eduardo Rodriguez is a perfect matchup to plate runs for the home side. You can’t go wrong with most Blue Jays props, but it’s Kevin Gausman and his plus-money outs market that has me excited.

The right-hander has gone at least six innings in both his starts and hasn’t needed more than 90 pitches to do so. Considering he was pitching in 50-degree temperatures in his last start, Gausman's leash could be longer today vs. the worst offense in baseball.

The Tigers rank dead last in slugging percentage, strike out a lot, and also walk at a very low rate. With an improved outfield defense and Matt Chapman at third, the Jays are also a very good defensive team that can support Gausman. He allowed just four hits in his last outing — a six-inning win vs. K.C.

Gausman’s efficiency makes this a great play, as well. No pitcher in baseball right now is using fewer pitches per plate appearance than the righty at 3.5 per PA. Detroit also doesn’t see many pitches as a team and ranks in the Bottom 10 in pitches seen per PA after finishing 26th last season.

Finally, the Toronto bullpen has also been busy, as no Blue Jays starter has recorded more than 13 outs in three straight games. Yimi Garcia and Zach Pop both threw 20 pitches last night, so manager John Schneider could have a longer leash for his starter.

THE BAT is projecting nearly 19 outs for Gausman and at +168, that is an incredible value.

My best bet: Gausman Over 18.5 outs (+168 at Caesars)

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Tigers vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

The Jays are warranted heavy favorites tonight after opening as long as -250 and moving as short as -290 by this afternoon. That’s a 35-point change from last night, when the Jays closed at -265 in their home opener.

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup is certainly more favorable to the Jays than yesterday's. Gausman has yet to allow an earned run over two starts, and with better temperatures tonight indoors at Rogers Center, the right-hander might have a better feel for his elite splitter after pitching in colder settings over his first two starts.

He’ll also face a Detroit lineup that currently strikes out at the third-highest rate, ranks 29th in AVG, 30th in slugging, and 29th in wRC+. Detroit has just six home runs over its first 10 games.

That's bad news for them, as the Toronto offense could likely be sending Rodriguez to the proverbial showers early tonight. The lefty has allowed three home runs this season and has given up seven runs over 10 innings.

The Blue Jays set a franchise record with home runs in a home opener with five last night, and if Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier are hitting, there are very few holes in this lineup. Toronto also hits lefties well, as they are a predominantly right-handed lineup.

Ultimately, all of this is priced in, and the Jays to win by two or more is still juicy at -140. With Gausman likely keeping the Tigers off the board, a multi-run win is a strong possibility.

For me, the best value on a side/total is on the Tigers’ team total Under 2.5 at +120, as Gausman should easily work through this order.

Tigers vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

Thanks to the Tigers’ anemic offense, the total seems low in a matchup that saw 12 runs last night. Rogers Center has become a better home-run park thanks to some dimension changes, but the Tigers might not be able to take advantage of that.

Gausman finished last year with a solid HR/FB rate (8.5%), which matched NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara’s. The Toronto starter has yet to allow a long ball this season, and faces an offense that has just six home runs across 10 games. I don’t expect the Tigers to contribute much to this total, but the Jays are certainly able to flirt with seven runs as their team total sits at 5.

With how the Jays were launching 400-foot balls last night, I wouldn’t want to bet on this full-game Under 8.5 that hasn’t seen much movement since opening. As I mentioned above, this is a bad matchup for the Detroit offense and an elite matchup for the Jays’ offense.

This is a great game to look at team total markets.

Tigers vs Blue Jays game info

Tigers vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Eduardo Rodriguez (0-2, 6.30 ERA): The lefty has been roughed up to begin the season and has allowed seven runs over 10 innings of work vs. some decent offenses in Tampa and Houston. He’s been taken deep three times and has a 6/4 K/BB ratio. E-Rod will face a heavily right-handed lineup that hit five home runs last night.

Kevin Gausman (1-1, 0.00 ERA): Gausman will be asked to bail out a bullpen that has been busy, as no Toronto starter has recorded more than 13 outs in three straight games. That should be fine for the right-hander, who has completed six innings in both his starts. He has done so efficiently, not needing more than 90 pitches in either outing to do so. He’s yet to allow an earned run and has struck out seven batters in each start.