Boston Red Sox Season Preview
Now three seasons removed from a surprising ALCS run in 2021, the Boston Red Sox find themselves in a difficult middle ground. In the two seasons since that playoff run, the Sox have gone a mediocre 78-84 in both seasons, each earning a last place finish in the American League East. With a mix of veteran talent and some youth, their current roster doesn’t exactly project to break out of this baseball middle class, particularly in such a tough division.
Boston Red Sox
2023 record: 78-84 (5th, AL East)
2024 FanGraphs projection: 81-81 (5th, AL East)
Red Sox fans have likely undergone a rollercoaster of emotions over the last half-decade or so. They of course traded away a generational talent in Mookie Betts following the 2019 season, and let Xander Bogaerts walk in free agency last offseason. But, they also locked up Rafael Devers with a 10-year extension before last season, and signed big name free agents in Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida. It could be a bit early to decide how some of these decisions pan out, but regardless, the direction feels a bit unclear in Boston.
The lineup is the strength of this team, particularly at the top. Devers is an obvious All-Star caliber player, averaging 33 homers and around 4 fWAR with a 132 wRC+ over the last three seasons, in each of which he’s played at least 141 games. Devers was the guy Boston decided to stick with long-term, and he will likely remain the dependable star they paid for, as ZiPS has him projected to remain a top-20 hitter in baseball. Triston Casas will likely be the next big bat for the Sox — the then-23-year-old hit 24 homers with a 129 wRC+ in his first significant taste of the big leagues last season, and he’ll look to continue that success in his sophomore season.
Masataka Yoshida was the headline acquisition of last offseason for the Red Sox, and was projected to be a top notch hitter from the jump. The lefty delivered in the first half, but hit a wall in the second, managing just a 76 wRC+ amidst a walk rate under three percent and a major drop-off in power. He did finish with a overall productive rookie campaign (109 wRC+), and ZiPS projects improvement on that, as he heads into 2024 as the primary designated hitter for the Sox. Trevor Story is the other big-ticket free agent on this roster, and despite his impressive resume with the Rockies prior to his six-year $140 million deal, he has not performed as advertised. Aside from a big week here or there, Story has played the worst baseball of his career, while dealing with injuries and appearing in just 94 and 43 games in his first two seasons in Boston. The Red Sox will need to bank on a healthy bounce back from the former All-Star if they want their lineup to have much depth beyond the top.
They also brought in Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom via trade this offseason. O’Neill was a star in 2021, but has struggled to perform and stay on the field since, but thankfully for them, projections seem to believe in a rebound for the hard-hitting outfielder. Grissom is just 23 years old, acquired for Chris Sale, and will at least provide some youth in this lineup beside Casas.
On the pitching side of things, the picture is a bit more grim. The headline acquisition of this offseason was the two-year $38.5 million contract they gave to Lucas Giolito. In the aftermath of his excellent run from 2019-21, the former top prospect has ranged from average to bad, and is entering his age-29 season. 2023 was his worst season since the breakout, as he bounced between three different teams while giving up a whopping 41 homers. Behind him is a solid-enough Nick Pivetta, an unproven but certainly talented Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford who did a nice job in 129.1 innings last season, and Tanner Houck, who was excellent in his first three seasons bouncing between the rotation and ‘pen, but took a step back as a full-time starter in 2023.
The rotation is filled with question marks for the most part, particularly after they dealt Sale to the Braves. It was a clear reset move, trading older for younger (in Grissom) but it certainly takes its toll on the state of this rotation.
The Sox bullpen looks to be anchored by the same group as last year, which was middle-of-the-pack by most standards. Chris Martin, who turns 38 in June, will look to continue the dominance he saw in 2023 with his 1.05 ERA. Fellow vet Kenley Jansen, who hopes to bounce back from a down season by his standards, projects to man the backend of the bullpen with Martin.
The Red sox have some solid top-end talent, and are certainly far from the league’s prospective basement-dwellers. Fittingly projected to go .500, stuck a bit between buying and selling, Boston will have a tough time making it out of the ultra-competitive East. Their not-horrible projection and 26.1 percent playoff odds serves as a signifier of just how good the division is, considering they feel like the clear weak team out of the five. Nothing is out of the question, as no real games have been played yet, but the Red Sox will need to be firing on all cylinders with some pleasant surprises to make some noise in 2024.
