Braves vs Padres Odds, Picks, & Predictions Today

Which Yu Darvish will show up on Sunday Night Baseball, the one who held the D-Backs hitless through six on Opening Day or the one who allowed nine runs in his shortest career start last time? Our betting picks look at his chances against the Braves.

The reigning World Series Champion Atlanta Braves face off with the San Diego Padres on Sunday Night Baseball.

It’s a matchup between two teams off to similar starts, as both sport identical 5-5 records. Youngster Bryce Elder will be on the mound for the Braves, while Yu Darvish gets the nod for the Padres. 

Which team will come through victorious Sunday night?

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Braves vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Padres opened at -129, and the line has moved from -130 to -135 across various books by Sunday morning. The total is set at 8 at most books, but 7.5 is also available at multiple locations.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movementsMLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 4/16/2022 at 11:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Braves vs Padres game info

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Sunday, April 17, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Braves vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Bryce Elder (1-0, 4.76 ERA): The Braves will send out the ironically named Elder, a rookie right-hander who is just 22 years old. This will be the second start of his career, with the first a 16-4 win over the Nationals earlier this season. The young righty pitched across three minor-league levels in 2021, going 11-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He’s an unproven commodity.

Yu Darvish (0-1, 10.57 ERA): Darvish’s first season in San Diego resulted in his ERA jumping from 2.01 in 2020 to 4.22 in 2021. His peripherals were solid, evidenced by a 3.32 xERA and a 3.75 xFIP. If a bounceback was expected this season, he hasn’t shown signs of improvement in 2022. After a solid start against the Diamondbacks on Opening Day, Darvish allowed nine earned runs in only 1 2-3 innings against the Giants in his second outing. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. RF (Out), Kirby Yates RP (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out), Jay Jackson RP (Out).
Padres: Wil Myers LF (Questionable), Luis Garcia RP (Questionable), Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Austin Adams RP (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out), Michel Baez RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 4-0 in their last four during the fourth game of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.

Braves vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room: Yu Darvish was shelled in his last start. He gave up nine earned runs to the San Francisco Giants and couldn't even escape the second inning, leading to his ugly 10.57 ERA after two starts to begin the season.

Despite this ugly outing, we expect a bounceback from the veteran pitcher on Sunday night. Besides, he twirled six hitless innings in his season debut against the Arizona Diamondbacks with the only blemishes to his line being the four walks he issued.

The Padres mightily disappointed a season ago while the Braves outperformed expectations en route to a World Series title. It’s reasonable to expect improvement from the Padres in 2022, as this is a well-rounded team with a solid lineup and rotation. 

Darvish has been around the block a time or two. He appeared to be unlucky a season ago, as his 4.22 ERA lagged behind his 3.32 xERA. He’s been inconsistent throughout his career, routinely fluctuating from an ERA in the 2.00 range to the 4.00 range. 

Bryce Elder is on the mound for the Braves. He’s the fifth-ranked prospect in the organization according to MLB.com and will be making his second big-league start. He’s a promising young talent, and Sunday Night Baseball provides a stage for him to display to the world what he’s really about.

We know the thumpers in the Braves lineup. The Padres, on the other hand, have an underrated lineup featuring Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Luke Voit, and Trent Grisham. Also, Jurickson Profar (.965 OPS) and Eric Hosmer (1.000 OPS) are swinging the bat well to begin the season.

Elder may prove to be a good pitcher down the line, but right now he’s still unproven on the biggest stage. Darvish is an established veteran and his line screams for some positive regression, so we’re backing his squad at home for Sunday Night Baseball.

Prediction: Padres ML (-130 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

The Padres lineup is perhaps a bit underrated at this point, possibly due to the team's underwhelming season a year ago. 

Darvish is coming off the actual worst outing of his long career. He’ll look to rebound against the Braves, who have one of the most potent offenses (on paper) in the league. It’s difficult to keep Atlanta off the scoreboard, regardless of who is on the mound.

Elder has barely gotten his feet wet in the majors but does possess some promise, but it's a big ask from him to stifle a solid Padres lineup while pitching on the road for Sunday Night Baseball. 

Both bullpens have struggled to begin the season, featuring an ERA of above 4.00. San Diego’s bullpen has allowed six home runs and a 4.46 ERA, while Atlanta’s has a disappointing 4.08 ERA despite a steady 1.11 WHIP. 

There are slightly more signs in favor of an Over, so that’s the direction in which we lean. 

Prediction: Over 8 (-105 at PointsBet)

Best bet

Much to the chagrin of primetime schedule makers, two of the game’s brightest young stars unfortunately won’t be on the field for Sunday’s matchup, as Ronald Acuna Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. are on the mend. Still, this is a great matchup for viewers and we have a best bet on tap.

We’re leaning on Darvish to experience positive regression and have a bounceback performance to right the ship after the Braves won each of the last two games in this series. We're taking the Padres to split the four-game set.

Pick: Padres ML (-130 at DraftKings)

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