Phillies vs Braves Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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20 September 2023

Phillies vs Braves Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Ronald Acuna Jr. smacked home runs 38 and 39 last night and is now just one away from a historic 40-40 season. Read our Phillies vs. Braves preview below to find out if tonight will be the night.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has the chance to become the first player ever in a unique milestone club on Wednesday afternoon as the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies in the finale of a three-game series.

The Braves are currently the favorites to win the World Series, while Acuna is the top pick to win the National League MVP, according to the latest MLB odds. The Phillies can earn a series win against their divisional rivals on Wednesday, and can also help secure their own Wild Card berth with a victory.

Acuna needs just one home run to get to 40 on the year, which would put him in elite company — not to mention a category all his own.

We’ll take a look at his chances of hitting this historic longball today in our free MLB picks for Phillies vs. Braves on September 20.

Phillies vs Braves odds

Phillies vs Braves predictions

Ronald Acuna Jr. has 39 home runs and 67 stolen bases on the season. Another home run would make him only the fifth member of the 40/40 club, joining Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano. It would also make him the first-ever 40/60 player — and by the end of the season, likely the first 40/70 club member as well.

Acuna went deep twice on Tuesday to close to within one home run of the historic total. It seems likely he'll get his 40th homer sooner rather than later. The question is: can he do it at home against the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday?

He looks to have a reasonable shot against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who has struggled to keep the ball in the park this year. Nola has allowed 31 homers on the season, the most in his career. His average of 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings is also a career-worst mark.

Nola is a righty, which might seem to work against Acuna, who bats from the same side of the plate, but the Atlanta Braves superstar has hit to reverse splits this year — and, to a lesser extent, has always found somewhat more success against righthanded pitching throughout his career. Acuna has a 1.029 OPS against righties and has averaged a home run every 17.3 plate appearances against them, compared to hitting one per 20.1 times at the plate against southpaws.

Acuna doesn’t have any dramatic home/road splits on his home runs this year. However, Trusit Park is considered one of the better parks for hitters looking to go deep, with a three-year park factor of 112 for homers. That’s tied for fifth-best in the majors. There’s nothing more than a gentle breeze predicted for weather today, so that shouldn’t impact the game in any significant way.

None of this comes close to guaranteeing that Acuna will hit his 40th longball of the season on Wednesday afternoon. However, it does point to the idea that he’s as likely to do it today as ever, with several factors working in his favor at the same time.

Still, some sportsbooks are willing to give us some highly generous odds on Acuna’s home run prop today. These props always vary wildly from site to site, which makes shopping around a necessity. We can get +500 at one major sportsbook, with several others offering over +400 on Acuna to go deep today.

Acuna is homering in more than one in five games as a baseline. He’s more likely than average to add to that total today. That makes the long odds extremely tempting, and I’m jumping on Acuna to hit home run No. 40 in today’s game at the best odds I can find.

My best bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run (+500)

Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay

Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run

Braves ML

Braves TT Over 5.5

We can build a lucrative same-game parlay around Acuna’s home run prop by selecting a couple of other outcomes that are correlated nicely with our bet that he’ll go deep. That starts by predicting that the Braves will manage to win on Wednesday, something they’ve done seven of the last nine times they’ve faced the Phillies.

With Nola on the mound and struggling this season, I expect the Braves lineup — arguably the best in the majors — to have a field day at home on Wednesday. Since we’re predicting Acuna hit a homer anyway, that increases the likelihood of the Braves putting up a solid run total as well. I’m adding in a bet on Atlanta to go Over 5.5 runs today to finish off this SGP.

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Phillies vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The moneyline on today’s game opened with Atlanta as a -135 favorite. The public has pushed the line further in the home team’s direction, with Braves -145 now the shortest line I’ve been able to find on the favorite. You can also get +132 if you’re looking to bet on the Phillies.

The Braves have been excellent on the moneyline this year, picking up more than nine units for backers. The Phillies have been hovering around even and have currently lost three units for bettors this year in total.

Bryce Elder has thrown well for the Braves this year, and while the 24-year-old hasn’t been spectacular as of late, he’s always managed to keep Atlanta in games. The same can’t be said for Nola, who will likely struggle against an outstanding Braves lineup. I’m leaning strongly towards Atlanta on the moneyline today.

The total for this afternoon’s game opened at 9.5 runs, and that remains the consensus Over/Under across the industry. Books seem to think that double-digit runs are likely, however. You can find as good as -103 on the Over, though it’s possible to get as good as -112 on the Under as well.

Philadelphia has played slightly below the number this year, with the Under posting a 72-67 edge when the Phillies play. The powerful Atlanta lineup has led the Over to an 83-65 mark in its games during the 2023 season.

I see the potential for a lot of runs in this game. Neither starting pitcher has been a dominant force in 2023, and both lineups can hit the ball hard. Truist Park is fairly friendly to hitters and the Braves in particular seem poised to score early and often on Nola. I’m leaning towards the Over.

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Trend to know

Acuna has hit at least one home run in eight of his last 17 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves

Phillies vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.62 ERA): After finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting in 2022, Nola was expected to continue to anchor the Philadelphia rotation alongside Zack Wheeler. Instead, Nola has struggled to maintain his form this year, as he has regressed in most areas. Nola is allowing more home runs, walking more batters, and striking out fewer hitters than last year. In his last start, Nola allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings against the Cardinals.

Bryce Elder (12-4, 3.50 ERA): A 2020 fifth-round draft pick, Elder raced to the majors in 2022 and has become a mainstay in the Braves rotation this season. While Elder doesn’t have strikeout stuff, he has done an excellent job of pitching to relatively soft contact this year, allowing just 17 homers over his 167 1/3 innings of work. Last time out, Elder allowed four runs on nine hits over five innings of work against the Miami Marlins.