Braves vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds

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20 April 2023

Braves vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds

The Braves have been lighting it up early, while both pitchers on the mound today could be exposed by the opposing lineup. See why our MLB picks think the Padres could host some first-inning fireworks Wednesday.

The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will wrap up a three-game series with an afternoon matchup on Wednesday.

The Braves can't stop winning. They've extended their winning streak to seven and looked particularly dominant in this series. The Padres swept them a week ago, and they want to return the favor. Atlanta blew it open last night with an 8-1 win the night before they shut the Padres out.

What's the Best Bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves on April 19.

Braves vs Padres odds

Braves vs Padres predictions

We're taking an unorthodox approach today with our Best Bet. It should be a decent day for scoring in San Diego, with a light breeze blowing out and a decent temperature. This should be an excellent formula to attack two suspect pitchers. They get hit early, and we're making a first-inning run to score our Best Bet.

Let's start with the math; my projections see value on this play down to -135. So, getting this at -120 is a nice discount.

The Braves have been one of the best first-inning run-scoring teams in baseball, and this season is no exception. It's a little dangerous citing too many stats like this while it's still early, but it's less dangerous when a team has a history of doing something. The Braves are currently third in baseball in first-inning runs. If they finish the season in the Top 5 in this category, it will be the second time in as many seasons they’ve done so.

The power in the front end of Atlanta's lineup is as good as any. What's most important in this handicap, though? Those players' barrel rates. Two players in the lineup’s top three have some of the highest barrel rate clips of any Brave, including Matt Olson, who is first. This also excludes Austin Riley, who bats fourth. This season, he's off to a slow start regarding barrel rate, but that's not who he's been historically.

On the other side of the spectrum, I'm leaning into the narrative of the Padres being super motivated to get on the board early after two straight losses to the same team. Of course, the sample is small, but they've had a good history of scoring in the first inning off losses this season.

Charlie Morton could be showing what the back end of his career will look like. Morton has been fortunate to grab a winning record to start this season. His lone loss came against this same Padres team a week ago when he surrendered two earned runs in five innings. That start, along with others, could have been worse. His expected ERA is north of 6, quickly the worst career start. In that game against the Padres, in particular, there were a host of hard-hit balls that San Diego got unlucky on. This trend may not keep repeating.

Back an early run to be scored today. The trends point to it, and neither pitcher on the mound impresses much.

My best bet: Run scored in the first inning - Yes (-120 at bet365)

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Braves vs Padres moneyline analysis

I don't trust either of these pitchers, which makes having a solid opinion on a side reasonably tricky.

The Padres will be more motivated than usual to avoid a sweep, but that will likely be matched on the other side as the Braves look to repay the sweep. Nick Martinez gets in the most trouble when he's walking batters (a walk rate that sits in the bottom 25% indicates that); however, he should find some relief there with the Braves batters being among the least patient hitters in baseball.

Still, it's hard to find much comfort in backing a pitcher with an expected slugging percentage of over .400. On the other side, I've said enough about how I feel about Morton. The Padres should do a decent job of hitting him today.

My projections made the Padres a decent favorite at around -130. So, if you're looking for a side, that's the one I'd lean toward. However, I'm too low on Martinez to back him with any conviction.

Braves vs Padres Over/Under analysis

It's hard not to like the Over here, and that is undoubtedly the direction I'm leaning.

We’ve talked a ton about the pitching issues in this matchup, which are plentiful. But beyond that, it's worth noting that the Padres' offense has been quiet lately. It's last in baseball over its last three games, scoring just .33 runs per game.

With all due respect to the teams surrounding it, like the Oakland Athletics and Colorado Rockies, that is not the type of offense the Padres have — it's significantly better. However, the Padres lineup will break out sooner or later, and you'd imagine it has an excellent chance to do so against a suspect pitcher like Morton.

Braves vs Padres game info

Braves vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Charlie Morton (2-1, 3.86 ERA): Heading into age 40, there are starting to be a few alarm bells going off for Moron. His expected ERA is at the highest number in his career at around six, and he's not missing many bats. Long-term, I'd like to see how sustainable this is. Morton has made three starts this season, with his lone loss coming against this Padres team. In his previous start, Morton surrendered two earned runs in six innings of work to the Kansas City Royals.

Nick Martinez (0-1, 5.60 ERA): While Martinez has done a decent job of limiting the hard-hit ball, he needs to do just about everything else better. To put it simply, Martinez is just finding too many bats. As a result, he has a K rate that sits near the bottom of baseball, an expected batting average, and a barrel rate that follows closely. To make matters worse, Martinez is walking batters at an excessively high clip. Thankfully for him, though, Atlanta may be one of the few teams in baseball that won't expose that much.