MLB Sunday Night Baseball Player Props: Lugo, Dodd, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (April 9)

What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday Night Baseball from Seth Lugo, Dylan Dodd, and Xander Bogaerts? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for April 9 on the diamond.

Happy Easter! This week’s MLB schedule will conclude with a matchup between the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves on Sunday Night Baseball at 7:00 p.m. EST. The Padres will hand the ball to Seth Lugo, who will be opposed by Dylan Dodd for the Braves.

There is plenty of value on the player prop market for this evening’s contest. Below are three leans for San Diego vs. Atlanta.

MLB Prop Bets Results – Monthly

April: 8-7
March: 2-1

MLB Props Results – Wager Type

1st Inning: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 1-1
Outs Recorded: 4-1
Hit/Total Bases: 0-2
Stolen Base: 0-0
Strikeout: 5-2

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MLB Player Props Today

Seth Lugo o4.5 strikeouts (-145), DraftKings

Throughout his career, Seth Lugo has proven himself capable of generating swings and misses on pitches outside of the strike zone – ranking in the 56th percentile in chase rate in 2018 and the 75th percentile in chase rate in 2020. In his first start to begin 2023, he induced a swing on an astounding 40.0% of pitches outside of the zone. On Sunday, he gets a matchup against the Atlanta Braves, which rank 17th in swing percentage on pitches out of the zone to begin the new season. Lugo is capable of striking out both right- and left-handed batters, which gives him an opportunity to hit the over in this spot regardless of the lineup construction he sees. This is a worthwhile risk for bettors.

Dylan Dodd o3.5 strikeouts (-165), DraftKings

In his first start of 2023, Dylan Dodd generated a 35.1% swing percentage on pitches outside of the strike zone and a 13.7% swinging-strike rate overall – proving that he can miss the bats with pitches both in the zone and outside of the zone. On Sunday, he gets to face a San Diego Padres team that will feature multiple batters who have swing and miss tendencies at the plate. The home plate umpire, Nic Lentz, is neutral, meaning that he will not steal any potential strikeouts from Dodd tonight. Do not bet the house on such a young pitcher, but Dodd should have every opportunity to get four strikeouts this evening.

MLBDFS Pick’em

Tonight’s starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, Dylan Dodd, is a left-handed pitcher. Facing southpaws in 2022, Xander Bogaerts had a .382 batting average, 1.038 OPS, .187 ISO, and a 192 wRC+ – meaning that he was 92% more productive against left-handed pitching than the league average hitter. In Dodd’s first start of the year, he allowed a 25.0% line drive rate and a 31.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed batters. Expect Bogaerts to have a strong performance on national television this evening.