Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 SGP picks: Bet on Bryce Harper after massive game

The Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to knock out the Atlanta Braves at home in Game 4 of the NLDS — just as they did last year.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta turns again to its ace, Spencer Strider, who we hope can pile up strikeouts as he normally does. We still prefer Philadelphia on an alt-run line, though, and Bryce Harper should be able to record a hit for the home team.

MLB oddsas of 10:05 a.m. on 10/12/2023.

Braves vs. Phillies SGP picks

Parlay: Phillies +2.5 + Strider over 7.5 strikeouts + Harper over 0.5 hits (+310)

Phillies +2.5 (-245): Through five innings in Game 2, Philadelphia was no-hitting Atlanta and held a 4-0 lead. If the Phillies had held on, this series would already be over.

Still, that one-run loss has been sandwiched by a pair of multi-run wins, which make the Phillies look like a relatively safe bet at this number.

Dating back to their regular season series against the Braves, the Phillies have covered a +2.5 run line in eight of 10 games — including all three in this series, of course.

Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, who held the Braves scoreless over 3.2 innings in Game 1, has covered this run line in 21 of his 23 starts.

Other parlay picks

Strider over 7.5 Ks (-165): Phillies fans were chanting, "We want Strider!" in the late stages of last night's blowout victory. And maybe that's true. But they should be careful what they wish for.

Strider has dominated the Phillies this season, going over 7.5 Ks in all five matchups against them. He is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in those starts, and he pitched well despite receiving the loss in Game 1 (7.0 innings, one earned run, eight Ks).

In fairness, Strider did melt down at Citizens Bank Park last postseason, allowing five runs with just four strikeouts over 2.1 innings. But his track record this year is spectacular.

All told, Strider has a dazzling 37.2% K-rate against Philadelphia's current lineup, per Baseball Savant.

Harper over 0.5 hits (-175): The city of Philadelphia is ready to explode, and Harper is the main reason why.

After being called out by Atlanta's Orlando Arcia for a base-running blunder in Game 2, Harper exacted his revenge last night. He homered twice and stared down Arcia both times as the Phillies' faithful roared in approval.

Harper now has at least one hit in 12 of his past 17 games, batting .333 in that span. He hasn't been a total wrecking ball against Strider, but his 5-for-18 (.278) stat line with two homers is pretty solid.

If you're looking for a straight prop wager, look at Harper to score a run (+133). The two-time MVP has crossed the plate in 14 of his past 17 games.