2023 MLB playoffs: Phillies vs. Braves odds, time, line, NLDS Game 4 picks, predictions from proven model
Citizens Bank Park hosts a pivotal 2023 MLB playoffs matchup on Thursday evening as the Atlanta Braves visit the Philadelphia Phillies for Game 4 of the NLDS. The Phillies lead the series by a 2-1 margin after a 10-2 victory on Wednesday. Ranger Suarez is projected to start for Philadelphia, and he will be opposed by Atlanta's Spencer Strider in a rematch of Game 1.
First pitch is at 8:07 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Atlanta as a -151 favorite (risk $151 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds. The over/under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 8.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Braves picks, be sure to .
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the second week of the 2023 MLB playoffs 92-74 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Braves vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Phillies vs. Braves:
- Braves vs. Phillies money line: Phillies -128, Braves -151
- Braves vs. Phillies over/under: 8.5 runs
- Braves vs. Phillies run line: Phillies +1.5 (-133)
- ATL: The Braves were 52-29 in regular season road games
- PHI: The Phillies were 49-32 in regular season home games
- Braves vs. Phillies picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Braves
Atlanta's Game 4 hopes rest heavily on the right arm of Strider, which should produce confidence for the Braves. Strider was an All-Star this season and finished near the top of the leaderboard in wins above replacement, illustrating his overall success. The powerful right-hander led the National League with 285 strikeouts and 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and Strider was in the top four of the league in WHIP (1.093) and hits allowed per nine innings (7.039). Strider pitched more than 185 innings this season while holding opponents to a paltry .634 OPS, and he was excellent on the road with a 3.36 ERA away from Atlanta.
He was also highly effective in Game 1 of the series, holding the Phillies to one earned run with eight strikeouts and only two walks across seven innings. With Strider on the bump, the Braves are in a strong position, especially with the league's best offense also in the mix. Atlanta led the National League in virtually every offensive category this season, including home runs, batting average, runs scored and OPS, and the Braves set a modern-day record with a .501 slugging percentage as a team. See which team to back here.
Why you should back the Phillies
The Phillies have been excellent in all facets during the 2023 MLB playoffs. Philadelphia has 10 homers and an MLB-best nine stolen bases in the postseason, posting a .521 slugging percentage and .869 OPS as a team. That comes after a regular season in which the Phillies posted top-three marks in the NL in home runs (220), stolen bases (141), OPS (.765), and total bases (2426). Bryce Harper leads the attack, and the two-time MVP has a 1.382 OPS with three homers in five playoff games. Harper also finished the regular season on a tear, producing 16 home runs with a .641 slugging percentage in the final 53 games.
On the run prevention side, Philadelphia's bullpen has a 1.84 ERA in 14.2 playoff innings, producing a 1.16 WHIP and holding opponents to a .232 batting average. Game 4 starter Suarez also boasts a 0.98 career ERA in 18.1 playoff innings, including 3.2 scoreless frames in Game 1 against the Braves in Atlanta. See which team to back here.
How to make Phillies vs. Braves picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 9.1 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all of the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
