Breeders' Cup 2023 Dirt Mile fair odds: Top 2 and everyone else

Cody's Wish not only will be the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile but also the shortest price of any Breeders' Cup race. As if bankrolls of horseplayers everywhere weren't enough of a burden to carry, the future Curlin stallion also carries the hearts of Cody Dorman's family, friends and everyone rooting for the sentimental Make-A-Wish story.

One thing Cody's Wish is not, however, is value.

Yes, the public absolutely has it right that he is the most likely winner of this race. But it is possible that Cody's Wish will be odds on here, and I don't think he wins this race a third of the time let alone more than half.

As an initial exercise, I computed fair odds as if all 15 pre-entered horses will start. Even if they all opt for this race, rather than their first preference, that can't happen because the field is limited to 12. So at a minimum, we're losing a trio of horses from the equation.

Depending on who ends up where, my final fair odds for the race will be different, but I am confident that there is no scenario in which Cody's Wish offers value.

For access to my fair odds for all 14 Breeders' Cup races, , which also includes Super Screener, Power Picks, Pro Reports, Sire Stats and Track Trends.

Anyway, back to the Dirt Mile. I'm going with Algiers, who is the only horse to run as fast as Cody's Wish this year and is coming in off a nice synthetic prep.

This is a two-horse race, in my mind, with a pretty clear separation between Algiers and the next tier of horses, with Skippylongstocking, Zozos and American Theorem.

Then another tier beneath them before a final tier so far below the others that you'd actually end up digging a hole to the other side of Earth to scale it properly.

Thinking about multi-race wagers, the Dirt Mile has not provided value in doubles, as more than a quarter of all Breeders' Cup-only doubles (nine of 32) have paid less than the corresponding win parlay. Pick 3s are a little kinder with about 5 of 42 coming in short. Only one Pick 4 from 16 didn't reach the parlay.

That makes the Dirt Mile interesting as one of three races that includes a pair of Pick 5s, including an all-Breeders' Cup Pick 5 that ends with the Distaff. And as HRN readers will learn tomorrow, I have a strong opinion in the Distaff as well.