Data show Flightline is best Breeders' Cup horse, but bad bet
Data show Flightline is best Breeders' Cup horse, but bad bet. In Dirt Mile, the model suggests Cody's Wish and Cyberknife will exhibit a neutral value. The model also suggests that the No. 8 horse Informative has big upside. The data was validated against races between Sept. 25, 2022, and Oct. 30, 2021. It is based on machine learning prediction model trained on more than 200,000 individual horse efforts spanning fall 2020 to late september 2022.
Flightline is the best Breeders' Cup horse, but bad bet. Equus model is fading Nest. This scenario provides a rare opportunity to get positive EV on two other well-known, low-priced horses: No. 1 Malathaat and No 4 Clairiere. Secret Oath offers some value (+1.9) at a bigger price. Clairier has an attractive mix of +EV and low odds.
Flightline is the most likely winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic. Hot Rod Charlie is a bad bet. Taiba offers value for low odds. Rich Strike plays spoiler. The smart money is on the rail. The winner will be decided on a $2 bet on Flightline.
