Buccaneers vs. Bears prediction, odds, spread, start time: 2023 NFL picks, Week 2 best bets by proven model
Two teams who defied Vegas' expectations in Week 1 will meet in Week 2 as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) host the Chicago Bears (1-0). The Buccaneers were road underdogs in Week 1 but won outright at Minnesota, while Chicago is coming off a loss to Green Bay despite being home favorites. The Bears have now lost 11 straight dating back to the 2022 season, making this the longest losing streak in franchise history. While Justin Fields wants to put an end to that long drought, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is searching for back-to-back victories for the first time in nearly two calendar years.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay is favored by 2.5 points in the latest Bears vs. Buccaneers odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 40. Before making any Bears vs. Buccaneers picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bears vs. Bucs and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 2 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bucs vs. Bears:
- Bears vs. Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -2.5
- Bears vs. Buccaneers over/under: 40 points
- Bears vs. Buccaneers money line: Buccaneers -140, Bears +119
- Bears vs. Buccaneers picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Bears vs. Buccaneers live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Bears can cover
Tampa struggled on offense last season under Tom Brady, and the early returns aren't that promising for this year. The Bucs had just 242 total yards in Week 1 despite winning both time of possession and committing zero turnovers. Mayfield isn't known for being the most careful with the ball, so it's a bit much to ask for another turnover-free game from him, and Chicago's run-heavy offense lends it to winning the time of possession battle. Speaking of the run, the Bucs ranked last in the NFL with 3.4 yards per carry last season and then went out and produced a 2.2 rushing average in Week 1.
No team has a worse ATS home record than the Buccaneers since the start of last season. Counting the playoffs, they are 2-7-1, and the team has already ruled out two defensive starters for Sunday. The Bears did lead the NFL in rushing yards and rushing average last season, and given the Bucs' struggles on the ground, Chicago has the clear edge in the trenches. The Bears will be heavily motivated to put last week behind them. See which team to pick here.
Why the Buccaneers can cover
Mayfield was efficient and effective in his first regular-season start for the Buccaneers. In Tampa Bay's 20-17 Week 1 win, Mayfield completed 21 of 34 passes for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns. More importantly, Mayfield took care of the ball, playing a turnover-free game, and only took one sack.
Mayfield's top target was veteran wide receiver Mike Evans. The four-time Pro Bowl selection caught 6 passes for 66 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets in Week 1. Defensively, the Bucs were dominant in Week 1, forcing three turnovers and limiting Minnesota's high-powered offense to just 17 points and 369 total yards. See which team to pick here.
How to make Bears vs. Buccaneers picks
The model has simulated Bears vs. Buccaneers 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Under on the point total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's Bears vs. Buccaneers pick at SportsLine.
