Bucks vs. Warriors Odds, Picks, Predictions: Golden State Given Slightest Edge in Marquee Showcase

sportsbookreview.com

11 March 2023

Despite being 14.5 games worse than the Milwaukee Bucks on the season, the Golden State Warriors are favored at home Saturday night. Here are the best Bucks vs. Warriors NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

For the Warriors, it has been the same storyline all season long. When they play at home, they’re great, but when they play on the road, they’re horrible. They’re 27-7 in San Francisco, but they’re an abysmal 7-26 when traveling. They have won six home games in a row entering Saturday.

The Bucks have been incredible of late, no matter where they play. They have won three games in a row and 19 of their last 20. Yet, despite their unbelievable play, they’re underdogs on Saturday. That's likely because Giannis Antetokounmpo is a game-time decision due to a hand injury. Does this line mean he is probably not playing?

Here is our best Bucks vs. Warriors pick (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bucks vs. Warriors pick

Warriors ML (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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When making your NBA best bets for Saturday's loaded slate, you'll definitely want to consider this marquee matchup of the past two NBA champions.

There is something very, very fishy about this line. The hottest and best team in the NBA is an underdog against a middling opponent. The Warriors are great at home, but are they really good enough to warrant being favored over the Bucks?

When a line is this strange, the best thing to do is to go with the side that doesn’t make any sense. In this case, that is taking the Warriors. According to their injury report, both guard Klay Thompson and forward Andre Iguodala have been upgraded to probable for Saturday's game. As long as they both play, the Warriors are essentially at full strength.

On the other side of the court, the Bucks will definitely be without Wesley Matthews, and with Giannis listed as questionable, it would not be surprising at all if he sits in a game that really doesn’t matter for the Bucks. Even if Giannis does play, will he play enough minutes to make his usual impact?

But the real key to the Warriors' victory will be how they play at Chase Center. In their last five home games, the most points they have allowed an opponent to score is 105. Meanwhile, they’re averaging 114.2 points per game during that stretch. If this game wasn’t at Chase Center, it wouldn’t be close. But because it is, the Warriors are the right play.

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Bucks vs. Warriors best odds

FanDuel (-102)

The prices being offered at each of our best NBA betting sites are interesting because some of them are actually offering the Warriors' moneyline at a worse price than the spread of Warriors -1. These two bets are essentially the same thing, and with the price better for the moneyline at enough places that’s what your wager should be placed on.

FanDuel is far and away the best price of any of the best sports betting sites. They are offering nearly even money for the Warriors to win which is significantly lower than everyone else. Perhaps FanDuel will start to get in line with the other sportsbooks, but we think that the others are actually going to follow FanDuel while Giannis’ status remains up in the air. If Giannis is ruled out, then this line will drop to around -115 or -120.

Bucks vs. Warriors odds

Bucks vs. Warriors odds analysis

The Bucks opened as 1.5-point favorites, and despite them seeing more than 50% of wagers, the spread has moved in favor of the Warriors by three points at some of the major sportsbooks. It doesn’t seem like oddsmakers are concerned with what the public is seeing in this game, instead, they are seemingly operating under the assumption that Giannis will not be playing in his normal capacity.

The number opened at 239.5. Some of the major sportsbooks have kept the total there, while others have dropped it to 238.5. BetMGM doesn’t have a total listed at the moment, and they likely won’t until they have more information about the Bucks’ leading scorer.