Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Saturday's Games

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11 March 2023

Is Giannis Antetokounmpo going to play for the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday? Perhaps the betting market is trying to tell us something. Jon MetlerNBA odds.

The Golden State Warriors need a victory since they're now in seventh place in the Western Conference standings, which means they have to participate in the play-in tournament. In the three games since Stephen Curry returned to the lineup, the Warriors have lost three straight games and I think Curry will take that personally.

I'm betting that Curry will score more than 28.5 points against the Bucks on Saturday, but who else will make our NBA same-game parlays?

Here are our NBA SGP picks for Saturday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Saturday's NBA SGP picks

Bucks vs. Warriors odds

NBA SGP predictions: Celtics vs. Hawks

Trae Young Over 24.5 points vs. Celtics (-113)

A matchup against Marcus Smart, the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, will present Young with an even greater challenge than the rest of his teammates will face against one of the best defensive units in the NBA. However, this total is too low for Young. Young is capable of creating his own shot against any NBA defense or defender.

We're able to price the Over 24.5 points at -135 since Young is projected to score 26.4 points against the Celtics. With this price point, we're also stealing at FanDuel as Caesars is trading the Over 24.5 at -130, which is much closer to ours.

Marcus Smart 6+ assists vs. Hawks (+130)

You know what's even more exciting than betting on Smart Over 4.5 assists at -156? Smart for six-plus assists at +130. On Saturday night, Smart is projected to drop 6.1 dimes against the Hawks. This projection allows us to price the Over 4.5 at -235, giving us a positive expected value of 15% if we bet on FanDuel's -156 or we can increase our edge by 10% if we go this route.

Based on that same projection, our price for Smart to have six or more assists is -120, while FanDuel is trading it at +130. The difference between our price and FanDuel's represents a positive expected value of 25%. At -156, the Over 4.5 assists is a good bet, but the six-plus assists at +130 is even better.

NBA SGP predictions: Bucks vs. Warriors

Brook Lopez Under 6.5 rebounds vs. Warriors (+102)

There are two layers to this bet for your Bucks vs. Warriors picks. First, the projections have Lopez under this total and we're getting a plus price on this outcome, love that. Second, I believe Giannis Antetokounmpo will play on Saturday night, and some of the steam we're seeing on the player props suggests as much.

Holiday and Lopez's rebound props have steamed to the Under, which could mean there's a strong belief Antetokounmpo will play and his return will obviously result in fewer rebounds available to the rest of the team. Even if Antetokounmpo is out, I like this prop because Lopez is projected to grab 6.2 rebounds, which means the Under 6.5 should trade at -130 rather than +102.

Stephen Curry Over 28.5 points vs. Bucks (-120)

It's a Saturday primetime game against the Bucks and the Warriors have lost three consecutive games since Curry returned to the lineup. Give me the Over on Curry's points! When playing against teams with an elite defense, such as the Bucks, you're forced to rely on your superstar players to create offense and score.

I'm not only convinced that Curry may explode on Saturday night, but the projections also support this narrative. As Curry is projected to score 30.4 points against the Bucks, the Over 28.5 should be trading at -130, so we're seeing the slightest edge at -120.

NBA SGP predictions: Kings vs. Suns

Deandre Ayton Over 18.5 points vs. Kings (-108)

Following the addition of Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns lineup, Ayton quickly became the forgotten player in the offense, but I think that'll change on Saturday with Durant out due to injury. There isn't much depth on this roster, so the Suns will need to make the most of Ayton's offense.

Due to Durant's presence in the lineup, Ayton's total dropped as low as 14.5 points in his previous outing. Ayton consistently traded between 18.5 to 19.5 points before Durant was acquired by the Suns. Ayton is now back up to 18.5 points, but according to his projections, it should be closer to 20.5 points for this matchup against the Sacramento Kings.

Devin Booker Under 31.5 points vs. Kings (-113)

It'll probably make me hate myself later if I take an Under on Booker's points, but this is just too good of a price and too high a total to pass up. I believe Kings head coach Mike Brown will put extra emphasis on slowing down Booker after he scored 44 and 32 points against the Kings this season, with the Suns winning each matchup.

At BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings, the Under is trading at -125, which highlights how favorable a -113 on the Under is at FanDuel. Booker is also only projected to score 30.3 points, which means we can price the Under 31.5 points at -140.

NBA player prop picks made 03/11/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.