Bucs are heavy underdogs Sunday to Vikings, but should they be?

TAMPA — Unlike recent season openers, when they had a national audience and a global celebrity behind center, the Bucs no longer are one of the NFL’s prevalent Week 1 story lines.

Fact is, they’ve regressed from foremost curiosity to foregone conclusion.

Which is to say, precious few expect them to win at Minnesota on Sunday.

Formal betting lines have the Vikings — coming off a surreal 13-4 season — as six-point favorites, making Tampa Bay the fourth-largest underdog of opening week. The oddsmaking diss falls in line with widespread preseason forecasts calling for the Bucs to finish as NFL bottom-feeders.

“I know I don’t pay too much attention to it,” veteran receiver Chris Godwin said Wednesday. “And I don’t think any of the guys in the locker room particularly care.”

Veteran defensive tackle William Gholston concurred.

“To be honest with you, no, it doesn’t matter, because at the end of the day you’ve got a job to do,” he said. “You do your job, everybody else talks. Actions speak louder than words.”

It’s why you play the games, or so the tattered mantra says. Here’s another well-worn adage: Looks are deceiving.

To probe a bit deeper into this Sunday clash — before what promises to be a raucous crowd at U.S. Bank Stadium — reveals a matchup darn difficult to analyze.

While the Bucs will roll out a new quarterback (Baker Mayfield), offensive coordinator (Dave Canales) and scheme, the Vikings similarly will counter with a new defensive play-caller (former Dolphins coach Brian Flores) and a number of new pieces on that side.

All of which stands to reason. The Bucs desperately needed an offensive reboot after losing Tom Brady and finishing last in the NFL in rushing (76.9 yards per game) in 2022, while the Vikings — despite their glistening record — ranked 31st in total defense (388.7 yards per game) and 31st in pass defense (265.6).

Moreover, a handful of the Vikings’ most notable defensive players — including eight-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Peterson and 2022 Pro Bowl defensive end Za’Darius Smith — have moved on.

“It’s different because (Flores) has been in a few places, obviously: Pittsburgh, Miami, New England,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said. “Brian’s a very sharp guy, he probably learned a little bit from each place and culminated. You kind of see a few things in the preseason, (but) I’m sure they’ll have some new wrinkles just like we will.”

Conversely, a veteran Bucs defense still featuring six guys who started Super Bowl 55 (seven if including nose tackle Vita Vea) will face a Vikings offense that has been significantly restocked if not refurbished.

Granted, All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson and Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson remain, and maligned quarterback Kirk Cousins is entering his 12th NFL season. But four-time Pro Bowl tailback Dalvin Cook is now a Jet, and two-time Pro Bowl receiver Adam Thielen is a Panther.

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Fifth-year backup Alexander Mattison replaces Cook. First-round pick Jordan Addison — who totaled more than 3,000 receiving yards at Pitt and Southern California — complements Jefferson but will be making his NFL debut.

“They’ve got a ton of (weapons),” Bowles said. “Obviously the first-round pick (Addison) comes in. He did a lot in college, we know what he can do, we scouted him pretty good. Hockenson, when he got to Minnesota (midway through last season), he made a heck of a bunch of catches.

“And they’ve got a third receiver (veteran K.J. Osborn) that’s maybe the most dangerous of them all because he can block, run and catch. So he does a bunch of things. ... If you try to take Jefferson away the other guys will kill you, so it’s going to be a slippery slope.”

Which is exactly what the Vikings spent all of 2022 treading.

Minnesota won all 11 of its regular-season games decided by eight or fewer points, including a record-setting 39-36 overtime win against the Colts after spotting Indianapolis a 33-0 halftime lead. For the year, the Vikings finished with a minus-3 point differential, becoming the first NFL team to win 13 games with a negative point differential.

Which begs the question of whether 2022 was a matter of fluke or fortitude, or both.

Sunday, it no longer will matter. Too many names — on both sides — have changed from last season.

And picking a winner could be a truly slippery slope.

“Last year, people probably predicted us to go all the way, and we saw how that worked out for us,” Godwin said. “There’s a reason that you go out and you play the games. You’ve got to go out and you’ve got to be able to execute, you’ve got to deal with adversity, and I’m excited to see how we handle that.”