Bulls vs. 76ers prediction: Will offenses show up in 2nd of a home-and-home?
Ahead of Wednesday’s NBA Eastern Conference clash, we’re set to share our Bulls vs. 76ers prediction and best bet.
This will mark the second straight head-to-head matchup between these sides with the Bulls claiming a double-overtime win on Monday in Philadelphia. For Chicago, that marked their third consecutive victory.
Meanwhile, Monday’s loss for the 76ers brought an eight-game winning streak to an end.
Philadelphia sits a game behind Boston for the two-seed, and is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 221.5 points. Those thinking the Bulls win their fourth straight can get +140 on the moneyline.
Total Under 221.5 Points (-110)
Maybe this is a trap line and I’m stepping right into it, but there’s simply too much evidence pointing to a low-scoring game.
As mentioned earlier, the previous meeting between these sides on Monday went to double overtime, which means there will be some more tired legs than usual. But, what we didn’t mention was that double-overtime game featured only 214 points, despite the extra 10 minutes.
Over the course of the first four quarters, the Bulls and 76ers combined for a mere 182 points. And yet, this line is still set miles ahead of that combined total.
That line is also indicative of both teams’ strengths this season — defense.
The Bulls rank fourth in adjusted defensive rating while the 76ers sit ninth overall in the same category, per dunksandthrees.com. While the 76ers’ rating is slightly concerning given they’ve faced the second-easiest set of opposing offenses, regression likely won’t come against a Bulls team that’s 23rd in adjusted offensive rating for the season.
Plus, it’s not as if either of these defenses have fallen off a cliff in recent games. Per NBA Advanced Stats, both the Bulls and 76ers are top-half defensively rated sides over their past 10 games. Shrink the sample down to each sides’ past five games and bettors will find the Bulls rank fourth in defensive rating while the 76ers lead the league.
Bettors should also see a downturn in production from the 76ers, who listed James Harden as questionable. Without him in the lineup, the 76ers see their offensive rating drop 6.1 points, per basketball-reference.com.
Additionally, this season, the Bulls are allowing two and a half fewer points per game at home while the Sixers have struggled on the road against top defenses. Through 10 road games against sides rated first-10th in the adjusted defensive ratings, Philadelphia is scoring 112.5 points per game, down from a season average of 115.4.
Lastly, it’s worth noting that the 76ers have allowed only 104.5 non-overtime points per game in 12 road games against teams ranked 21st through 30th in the adjusted offensive ratings for the season, holding a third of those teams under 100 points.
For those reasons, back the under in Chicago.
