Can Michigan football feast on its favorable 2023 schedule before USC, Texas and others crowd the plate?
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Before the Big Ten becomes a super league, Jim Harbaugh has a mission to complete.
The last time Michigan football finished where Harbaugh believes the program belongs, none of his current players were alive to see it. Next January will mark 26 years since UM’s last national title (and undefeated season), a streak Harbaugh was hired to resolve in 2014.
Nine years later, the Wolverine lifer might be staring at his best chance. His 2023 roster boasts 13 returning starters and looks more talented than any before it. Three of college football’s traditional powers -- Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama -- are re-tooling at quarterback while Harbaugh returns a five-star with 14 starts under his belt. And Michigan’s schedule, which will feature blue bloods like USC, Texas and Oklahoma in 2024 and/or 2025, features more sub-.500 teams from last season (five) than it does opponents who finished 2022 ranked (two).
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Wolverine fans see stars aligning, but those stars are merely circumstances until Michigan capitalizes upon them. And due to impending schedule changes, it only gets one chance to answer the following: If this isn’t UM’s year, when is?
Harbaugh’s title hopes begin with a strong chance to make the playoff, which is tied to UM’s stronger-than-most chance at finishing undefeated. In 10 of its 12 games this fall, Michigan has at least a 77.7% chance to win, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Harbaugh has lost five games combined against those 10 teams since arriving at Michigan (four to Michigan State, one to Indiana), and the Wolverines are already listed as double-digit favorites against vs. Eastern Carolina (-36.5) and at MSU (-19), according to Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars also lists UM as 2.5-point favorites against both Penn State (road) and Ohio State (home) this season, which dovetails with Michigan’s recent trends against both. The Wolverines are 5-3 with a +68 point differential against Penn State under Harbaugh. And though he lost his first five games against the Buckeyes -- and ESPN gives OSU a 71.4% chance to win this season -- Harbaugh has beaten them two straight seasons by an average of 18.5 points. Michigan left Ohio Stadium last year feeling it had wrestled control of the rivalry.
This year’s Buckeyes will be eager to reset that narrative, and they might have a chance to spoil Michigan’s dream season in the process. Because as much as Michigan’s schedule presents an opportunity, it also leaves smaller margin for error. One-loss Michigan could easily get left out of the College Football Playoff if it loses to the wrong team or at the wrong time -- namely: on Nov. 25 against Ohio State, when a loss could knock the Wolverines out of conference title contention.
UM has won the last two Big Ten titles, but fans are hungry for higher achievement, and they don’t want to wait, especially not when Michigan’s barrier for playoff entry increase over the next two seasons. Sure, the playoff will expand, but USC, Texas and Oklahoma have all ranked ahead of UM in 247Sports′ composite talent rankings over the last four seasons (several of which were considered down years for those programs).
And as cleveland.com calculated in December, the Wolverines are 2-10 under Harbaugh when facing a talent deficit. Their average margin of defeat in those games is 15.5 points, which is on par with the beatdowns Michigan handed to other Big Ten teams last year (19.8 points per win).
Beating up Bowling Green and Indiana is fun, but what happens when UM replaces them with Texas and USC in 2024? If UT, USC and Oklahoma remain ahead of Michigan in recruiting, UM will play three regular-season games at a talent deficit in 2024, and five over the next two seasons. That’s without counting Penn State, which has ranked within two spots of Michigan’s recruiting talent since 2019.
The Wolverines have proven it can account for (and close) a talent gap against Ohio State. Their 2024 class ranks second as of this writing. But the cycle is still churning, and their competition could stiffen as USC and UCLA gain footholds in Big Ten country and Texas and Oklahoma gain visibility in the SEC.
Then again, Michigan could change its trajectory if Harbaugh finishes his mission. And why shouldn’t he?
This should be his best team. It plays a soft schedule, and the college football powers above it shouldn’t be so invincible this season.
Under those circumstances, Michigan had better take advantage.
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