CBB odds, predictions, picks: Three picks for Thursday’s conference tournament action in the Big East, Big 12 and ACC
With a combined nine Final Four appearances and four national championships in the last 15 years, North Carolina and Villanova are used to winning this time of year.
What they’re not used to at this time of year? Needing to win just for an opportunity to compete in the NCAA Tournament.
Yet that’s where both programs found themselves entering their respective conference tournaments this week. So far, so good, as both the Tar Heels and Wildcats easily took care of business in their first-round matchups Wednesday.
Now comes the difficult part, as UNC and Villanova will take the court Thursday as underdogs in the ACC and Big East tournaments, respectively. The challenge for both teams remains the same as Wednesday: Survive, advance and keep those March Madness hopes alive for one more day.
Will they do it? Read on for our predictions, as well as some wagering advice for an intriguing Big 12 Tournament clash of Top 25 teams.
Odds updated as of 12:45 p.m. ET on March 9.
North Carolina vs. Virginia (ACC Tournament)
Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Point spread: North Carolina +2.5/Virginia -2.5
Moneyline: North Carolina +122/Virginia -145
Total: 129 points
Analysis: Twelve days ago, UNC welcomed the Cavaliers to Chapel Hill and cruised to a 71-63 victory as a 4.5-point favorite. That win is part of a current 4-1 run for the Tar Heels, including Wednesday’s 85-61 rout of Boston College as a 10.5-point chalk.
The only recent misstep for North Carolina: Saturday’s 62-57 home loss to Duke. But the Blue Devils are the ACC’s hottest team (six straight wins). The Tar Heels (20-12, 11-21 ATS) also arrived in Greensboro, N.C., as the favorite to win the tournament.
Virginia and Miami, which shared the ACC regular season championship, opened as the co-second choices behind Duke. However, the Cavaliers (23-6, 10-17-1 ATS) have failed to meet market expectations of late, going just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games. That includes four straight non-covers (and three outright losses) away from home. Prior to losing at North Carolina, Virginia fell at Boston College 63-48 as a 9-point favorite, barely prevailed at lowly Louisville 61-58 as a 16-point favorite and lost at Virginia Tech 74-68 as a 1.5-point underdog.
Yes, UNC got a scare Wednesday when 6-foot-11 forward Armando Bacot hobbled to the locker room late in the first half after twisting his ankle. He came back and played 5½ minutes in the second half, but his status for Thursday is unknown.
Bacot’s injury likely explains why this point spread has ballooned as much as two points (from Virginia -1 to Virginia -3, back to -2.5). But Bacot was a minor contributor in his team’s win over the Cavaliers late last month (11 points, six rebounds and four fouls in 25 minutes).
Even if he doesn’t go or is limited, we still like the Tar Heels’ chances to at least cover the spread in what should be a competitive battle from start to finish.
Prediction: North Carolina +2.5
Villanova vs. Creighton (Big East Tournament)
Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)
Point spread: Villanova +5/Creighton -5
Moneyline: Villanova +175/Creighton -210
Total: 134.5 points
Analysis: Villanova shares a lot of similarities with North Carolina.
Like the Tar Heels, the Wildcats (17-15, 14-18 ATS) enjoyed a first-round laugher Wednesday, dumping Georgetown 80-48 as an 11-point favorite. They’re also on a roll, having won four of their last five and seven of nine. And they easily handled their second-round opponent 12 days ago.
On Feb. 25, Villanova raced out to a 38-24 halftime lead against visiting Creighton and cruised to a 79-67 victory despite being a 2.5-point home underdog. That win avenged a Feb. 4 loss at Creighton — but it was a competitive loss, as the Wildcats fell 66-61 and easily cashed as a 9.5-point underdog.
The most interesting thing about those two results? Two of the Wildcats’ best players and top scorers — guards Caleb Daniels and Justin Moore — didn’t light up the scoreboard. The duo combined for 35 points, including just 10 points in the 12-point home win.
Instead, leading scorer Eric Dixon went off for 51 points (20 at Creighton, 31 at home), while fellow forward Cam Whitmore chipped in 26 combined points.
Creighton (20-11, 15-16 ATS) did rebound from the loss at Villanova with a pair of lopsided season-ending wins over Georgetown (99-59 home) and DePaul (84-70 road).
Of course, Georgetown and DePaul anchored the Big East standings this year (winning a combined five league games). The Bluejays’ record in their last three games against opponents that finished .500 or better in league play (Villanova, Marquette and Providence): 0-3 SU and ATS.
And while Creighton did easily cover against Georgetown and DePaul, it had previously been in a 2-6 ATS slump (all as a favorite). In fact, going back to Dec. 4, the Bluejays are 9-14 ATS and have cashed in three straight contests just once during the 23-game stretch.
Finally, in allowing a season-low 48 points in Wednesday’s Big East Tournament opener, Villanova continued a recent trend of strong defensive play. The Wildcats have allowed 73 points or fewer in 13 of their last 14 games — including 67 or fewer eight times, including both battles with Creighton.
We expect that defense to show up once again Thursday at Madison Square Garden — and we also expect Moore and Daniels to have a much bigger impact in this third meeting with Creighton.
Prediction: Villanova +5
TCU vs. Kansas State (Big 12 Tournament)
Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Point spread: TCU -2.5 (-102)/Kansas State +2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: TCU -134/Kansas State +112
Total: 147.5 points (Over -115/Under -105)
Where to bet:FanDuel
Analysis: Kansas State (23-8, 20-11 ATS) and TCU (20-11, 15-16 ATS) split their two regular-season meetings, with both winning at home. That’s hardly a surprise, considering the Big 12 rivals each have five wins in the last 10 head-to-head battles. In fact, they’ve alternated victories in the last five.
Both squads also enter the Big 12 Tournament in similar wheel-spinning ruts: Kansas State is 6-6 in its last 12 games (4-1 in its last five); TCU is 6-7 in its last 13 (3-2 in its last five). As for Thursday’s rubber match in Kansas City, oddsmakers have made TCU a short favorite — even though Kansas State has a better SU record, ATS record and finished two games ahead of the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 standings.
So what’s the best betting strategy in this one? Punt on the point spread and focus on the total. Because there’s one more thing the Wildcats and Horned Frogs have in common: Neither has been playing defense lately.
TCU has surrendered 70-plus points in 10 of its last 11 games (average of 74.8 points per contest). That includes 82 in a 19-point loss at K-State on Feb. 7.
The Wildcats have yielded 68 points or more in seven of their last 10 games. And if you take out a 61-55 home win over offensively challenged Iowa State, K-State has given up an average of 73.4 points in its last nine.
During the conference season, the Wildcats ranked ninth in the 10-team league in scoring defense, allowing 72.1 ppg. But that number ballooned 84.1 ppg away from home.
How did TCU’s defense travel in Big 12 play? Not much better: 76.3 ppg. And that doesn’t include an 81-74 loss at Mississippi State in an SEC/Big 12 Challenge affair.
These teams combined for 143 points in their first meeting at Kansas State and 150 points at TCU. However, Horned Frogs leading scorer Mike Miles Jr. (17.2 ppg) didn’t play in that first matchup. And he scored only 13 points in the second — yet the teams still cleared 147.5 points.
Look for Miles to go off in this one. And look for K-State leading scorers Keyontae Johnson (17.8 ppg) and Markquis Nowell (17.0 ppg) to do likewise in a high-scoring shooting.
Prediction: Over 147.5 points (-115)
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