Celtics vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions Feb. 11: Fade Adebayo, Miami at home

For the third and final time this season, the Boston Celtics will face the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: Miami finished on top in last year's Eastern Conference Finals showdown, but I'm liking the Celtics today as a road underdog. To complete this +300 same-game parlay, add in prop bets for Kristaps Porzingis and Bam Adebayo.

NBA oddsas of 9:50 a.m. on 02/11/2024.

Celtics vs. Heat same-game parlay

Parlay: Celtics -3.5 + Porzingis over 1.5 threes + Adebayo under 11.5 rebounds (+300)

Celtics -3.5 (-162): The Celtics have really struggled to cover spreads in recent games (1-6 ATS in their past seven), but this number asks far less of them than usual.

For context, today's game marks Boston's 15th in a row as the favourite. And of the previous 14, only one of those spreads was smaller than -6.5.

With that said, Boston has covered a -3.5 spread in 11 of those 14 games. And both of its victories over Miami this year have come by at least eight points.

The Heat tend to win when they're supposed to — and lose when they're not. Miami is 0-6 ATS as a home underdog and has six straight ATS losses as an underdog in any setting.

Other parlay picks

Porzingis over 1.5 threes (-127): If I was Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla, I would tell Porzingis to keep firing away from 3-point range.

Why? The veteran power forward is shooting a blistering 45.5% over his past 10 games. He's attempted 5.5 threes per game in that span, and the efficiency suggests he should be bumping up the volume.

As it stands, Porzingis has cashed this prop in eight of his past 10 games, as well as both matchups against the Heat this year.

Miami allows the seventh-most 3-point attempts per game (36.9), so this could be an opportunity for Porzingis to get some looks in space.

Adebayo under 11.5 rebounds (-225): Given that Adebayo has averaged 10.5 rebounds this season, it's fair to say he's more likely than not to fall under this line.

Another way to look at it is that he's finished under 11.5 rebounds in 29 of 42 games (69.0%). That includes both games against the Celtics, in which he grabbed just 12 combined rebounds.

Since the start of last season — playoffs included — Adebayo has hit this under in 10 of 13 matchups against Boston.