Championship promotion odds: Who is going up to the Premier League?

sportinglife.com

04 March 2024

Championship promotion odds: Who is going up to the Premier League?

Four teams setting what would usually be title-winning pace, yet at least one of them is guaranteed to be in England's second tier once again next season.

Leicester have long been the favourites to lift the trophy, but Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton have been a constant threat in the places behind them.

Each has been in the top two at some stage, with Leicester top since victory over Bristol City in their eighth game of the campaign.

As the run-in approaches, it's wide open.

Leicester - 4/9
Leeds - 10/3
Ipswich - 6/1
Southampton - 20/1

Leicester hold a three-point advantage over Ipswich - with Leeds two points further back - but the Foxes' commanding position at the top has collapsed over the past few weeks.

After a 2-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday on February 13, they were 12 points ahead. They have since lose three straight matches, including a damaging defeat at Leeds.

Remarkably, they entered 2024 a huge 17 points clear of the West Yorkshire side.

The market still favours Enzo Maresca's side, yet the 4/9 price on the title is a serious drift from the 1/14 of not long since.

How many points are needed for promotion?

Across the past 10 Championship seasons the average points needed to win the title was 89.6 with 84.6required to finish in the top two.

These averages are worked out from the totals of the teams who finished second or third, with title and promotion winners of course regularly going way beyond these numbers.

If all four teams continue at their current rate, Leeds would finish on 96 points and yet that would not be enough for automatic promotion.

Since its re-branding to the 'Championship' in 2005, that has been enough for promotion from the second tier every single season.

In 13 of the 19 campaigns, it's won the title.

Who has the best remaining fixtures?

Leicester - Average position of remaining opponents: 11.3

Leicester will be hoping their dip in form is now out of the way, with three consecutive defeats throwing the race wide open.

They beat Southampton in mid-September - when the Saints were finding their feet - but two losses to Leeds and draws with Ipswich leaves them with winless returns against their main rivals.

Hull (A), Norwich (H), Southampton (H) and West Brom (H) are to come, with a trip to Preston at the end of April a potentially tricky one if they still have a chance of play-offs involvement.

Ipswich - Average position of remaining opponents: 10.4

The advantage Ipswich have over their promotion rivals is that there isn't as much pressure on them to deliver.

Like Leicester, they capitalised on a September trip to Southampton, but defeats to Leeds and winless returns against West Brom may be cause for slight concern.

A five-game winning run will have been welcomed following a stretch of just one victory in nine prior to it.

Hull (A), Norwich (A) and Southampton (H) are the toughest remaining games for Kieran McKenna's men. Four of their remaining six at home are against those in the bottom half.

Leeds - Average position of remaining opponents: 14.0

Daniel Farke's side have, on paper at least, the 'easier' run-in of the quartet.

They've already completed their fixtures against Ipswich and Leicester - winning all four - while the remaining away games come against teams in ninth or lower.

This must be a squad full of confidence too, currently enjoying a run of 10 games unbeaten in the league, with nine of those wins. Leeds are yet to lose in front of their own fans, winning 13 of 17.

It's hard to imagine a final-day clash with Southampton not being crucial.

Southampton - Average position of remaining opponents: 9.9

Saints enjoyed a remarkable 25-game unbeaten run in all competitions, yet they find themselves as the outsiders among the group battling for automatic promotion.

The worry for them is that they still have to play the other three teams - all away - before the conclusion of the campaign. Play-off hopefuls Coventry, Preston and Sunderland are still to visit St. Mary's too.

In 12 games against those currently in the top-10, Russell Martin's men have managed just four wins.

Odds correct 1615 GMT (04/03/24)

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