Chelsea v Aston Villa: Best bets for all Sunday’s Premier League games

Our betting expert with tips for Stamford Bridge and Anfield, Arsenal against Tottenham, Sheffield United-Newcastle and Bournemouth at Brighton PLUS La Liga on ITV

Some expected-goals boffins say Chelsea are the fourth-best side in the Prem this season.

Who knew? You do wonder how far data-dabbling steered the recruitment car crash.

Still, they have looked unlucky on the balance of play and chances, for and against. Post-Europa visitors Aston Villa (2pm), could see that change.

Getting Nicolas Jackson further up to Prem speed is key for the Blues, who create enough chances for him.

Amazingly just one yellow away from a ban already, the La Liga recruit is 11/4 (Skybet, Paddy) ‘to be shown a card’ and 17/10 (Hills) ‘anytime scorer’, for only his second Chelsea goal.

We’re being offered a choice – punt statistical reality or statistical hope. Let’s split a stake and try a bit of both.

Reality has been giving poor Sheffield United a shoeing lately, and a visit from Newcastle (4.30pm) is unlikely to offer relief.

Anthony Gordon’s pace will be a nasty shock, too. Have him ‘anytime assist’ at 4/1 and 6/5 ‘score or assist’ with Paddy Power, who include ‘winning’ a penalty or direct free-kick that’s scored – be aware, some firms don't pay out on those.

The north London derby (2pm) finds both Arsenal and Tottenham fighting fit. Arsenal will be pumped up, hunting a knockout, but visitors Spurs could be the value to land a counter-punch or two.

There’s serious pace on the break in Ange Postecoglou’s side, none quicker than Dejan Kulusevski, who is worth a split stake at 13/2 (Unibet) ‘anytime scorer’ and 12/5 (Paddy) ‘score or assist’.

Brighton and Bournemouth (2pm) should provide a seaside special, with a sunny goals-forecast. New Cherries boss Andoni Iraola will soon realise it’s not any sort of derby. If the A27’s playing up it’s practically an intercontinental fixture.

Liverpool and visitors West Ham (2pm) look goal-ripe too – take YES ‘both teams score’ in a double with YES at Brighton, it pays over 11/8.

On ITV4 tonight cheer for the ref when Real go to Atletico in the usually very feisty Madrid derby (8pm, La Liga) – punt OVER 5.5 cards at 11/8 (Paddy).