Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

The Washington Nationals (43-59) and New York Mets (47-54) begin a 4-game series in the Big Apple on Thursday. First pitch at Citi Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 4-3

The Nationals won 5 games on their 6-game homestand, including a 5-4 victory over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. They outscored opponents 38-24 over that span. Washington is 9-16 against the NL East this season.

The Mets lost their 2nd straight to the New York Yankees on Wednesday 3-1 and went 2-3 on their 5-game road trip. The Mets are 23-22 at Citi Field.

Nationals at Mets projected starters

RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Gray (7-8, 3.45 ERA) will make his 21st start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 112 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 10-1 home victory vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday
• Last start vs Mets: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in a 5-0 road win on April 25
• 2023 away splits: 4-4, 2.74 ERA (69 IP, 21 ER), .251 OBA in 12 starts

Senga (7-5, 3.27 ERA) will make his 19th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 99 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 5-4 victory at the Boston Red Sox Friday
• Last start vs Nationals: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 7 K in a 4-1 road loss on April 26
• 2023 home splits: 3-2, 2.50 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 14 ER), .177 OBA in 9 starts

Nationals at Mets odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 a.m. ET.

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 5, Mets 4

BET NATIONALS (+164)

Washington has played well against the Mets and have outscored them on the season. New York has not given any reason to think they should be this big of a favorite.

Gray shut down the Mets earlier this season. He has been the Nationals best starter, which is why he was the lone representative at this year’s mid-summer classic.

This is worth a full unit bet with those juicy plus odds.

AVOID.

If you want to take the Nationals getting the run and a half, I’m not going to fight you, but I’d rather just take the moneyline with the better odds.

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LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-128)

Gray has an under 3.00 ERA on the road and Senga has an under 3.00 ERA at Citi Field on the season. This game will stay under 10 runs with 2 quality pitchers starting.

These 2 teams have been under this total in 4 of their last 5 meetings.

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