Chiefs vs. 49ers early prediction: Super Bowl pick, best bet
What do you know? The Chiefs have willed their way to another Super Bowl.
We’re far enough into the dynasty of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes that oddsmakers never truly doubted Kansas City, no matter what offensive frustrations they exhibited in the regular season.
Their longest Super Bowl futures odds were 9/1 after edging the Chargers 13-12 in Week 18.
The Chiefs opened as favorites following their Super Bowl LVII victory over the Eagles and remained as such until Week 1.
The 49ers took over as sole favorites in Week 4 and have remained there since. Kyle Shanahan now gets a shot to avenge his crew’s Super Bowl defeat to the Chiefs four years ago.
(Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
If there’s any team that has paid its dues, it’s San Francisco.
The 49ers have appeared in four of the last five NFC Championship games and lost in the previous two.
It was seemingly trending toward a third straight when the 49ers were trailing Detroit, 24-7, at halftime.
The team that emerged for the second half would execute the largest halftime deficit comeback in conference championship history.
Much of this was due to some questionable play-calling, bad turnovers and a defense that completely lost its edge.
The 49ers will be facing a Chiefs squad that is a Super Bowl underdog in back-to-back years.
It’s really tough to rationalize fading Patrick Mahomes; he has lost three playoff games in his six-season career to only Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.
The Chiefs have now covered the spread in five consecutive games and Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since Christmas.
He is 12-0 as an underdog in a six-point teaser; this is the 11th time Mahomes has opened at +2.5 or higher and he is 9-0-1 against the spread and 8-2 straight up in those contests.
No matter how you want to advertise the playoff prowess of Mahomes, I am going against the grain here.
The Ravens more or less beat themselves on Sunday by way of undisciplined play. Even though the 49ers took almost four quarters to put away Green Bay and then slept through the first half against the Lions, Shanahan has been a clutch problem-solver.
We all know that his tool belt is as comprehensive as any, but when San Fransisco stars are healthy, it comes out in the wash. It is 16-9 against the spread when both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffery are healthy.
In regards to health, the Chiefs’ pass rush will be short-handed with Charles Omenihu officially out with a torn ACL. He is added to the laundry list of key players whose statuses were left in question leading up to the AFC Championship.
Brock Purdy had 48 rushing yards on five carries against Detroit — his second-highest mark on the year in a department he isn’t quite known for.
He continues to be unvalidated for irrelevant reasons, such as his draft position, yet he continues to extract the best from the talent around him while taking plays into his own hands when needed.
Isn’t that the textbook description of a successful quarterback? Either that or a league-leading 72.7 QBR and a 113.3 passer rating.
We love to get caught up in narratives, and there is certainly plenty to discuss with two perennial contenders for the better part of a decade. But when it comes down to what’s on the field, let’s call it square on two top-three defenses in points allowed.
I see this as the unrelenting chemistry between Mahomes and Travis Kelce — who connected on all 11 attempts against Baltimore — against an overwhelming cast of star power.
Mahomes’ connection with Kelce has accounted for more than 36 percent of his air yardage in the playoffs.
Calling him a one-trick pony would be ignorant, but the 49ers are deploying four players with 100-plus total yards in the playoffs. They more than doubled the Chiefs in average scoring margin.
Whether Vegas perceives Mahomes as an underdog or not, the public will always favor him at this point. Ignore the storylines and take the early edge with San Francisco.
Pick: 49ers -1.5 (+105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
