Christian McCaffrey Odds & Props
Christian McCaffrey has been borderline unstoppable since joining the San Francisco 49ers. The Seattle Seahawks have struggled to stop running backs and haven't faced an elite one this year. That sounds like a recipe for success in our props spotlight.
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As everyone is winding down from a day of stuffing themselves with turkey and watching Thanksgiving classics like the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys, they can enjoy a nightcap of an NFC West heavyweight showdown.
While the Seattle Seahawks are just one game back of the San Francisco 49ers in the division, NFL Week 12 odds have the red and gold as seven-point road favorites. A large reason why has to be Kyle Shanahan’s X-factor… Christian McCaffrey.
You can see how I’m betting on the 49ers running back as we dive into Christian McCaffrey odds in my free NFL picks below.
Christian McCaffrey TNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Christian McCaffrey TNF prop pick
Over 75.5 rushing yards (-110)
The old adage used to go, “Insert any running back into a Shanahan system and he'll have success.” While that may be true, the San Francisco 49ers head coach hasn’t been shy about how much he loves having a superstar running back.
Since getting to San Francisco, Christian McCaffrey has been unstoppable. He’s a touchdown machine with 24 scores in 21 games as a 49er. It’s such a given he’ll score at this point that his anytime TD line against the Seattle Seahawks is -225.
There’s not enough value there, so we turn our attention to his 75.5-yard rushing line. This season, the 49ers are among the best offenses in the league thanks in part to their efficiency behind Shanahan’s play-calling.
They’re first in EPA per play and eighth in EPA per rush, and McCaffrey is on pace to go to his third Pro Bowl. He’s been unstoppable on his way to leading the league in touchdowns and breaking Jerry Rice’s franchise record for consecutive games with a touchdown.
The former first-round pick out of Stanford hasn’t just been scoring, he’s been racking up the yards every week. Not only is he second in the league in yards from scrimmage (1,189) and first in rushing (825 yards), but he’s got over 100 more rushing yards than the second-leading rusher.
McCaffrey is averaging 82.5 rushing yards per game this season and has gone for at least 76 on the ground in six of 10 games. He’s set up well to do it again against a Seahawks defense that’s 17th in EPA per play and 21st in EPA per rush.
Seattle is allowing 112.6 rushing yards per game this season, 14th most in the league, but hasn’t faced many premier running backs. In the Seahawks' only game against a Top-5 offense in EPA per play, they allowed 298 rushing yards to the Baltimore Ravens.
The Seahawks have benefited from playing teams that were without their starting running backs — New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, LA Rams — or lost them to injury during the game — Detroit Lions. They’ve not dealt with a true star running back all season, nor one that totes the rock as frequently as McCaffrey.
The 49ers' willingness to use McCaffrey as a bell cow this season has stood out, he’s second in the league in carries and averaging 17.4 per game; he’s had at least 18 carries in six of 10 games. Seattle has faced just one running back who has had more than 17 carries in a game this season, Cam Akers in the season opener.
In his lone game against the Seahawks last season, McCaffrey ran for 108 yards and a score on 26 carries. With his 4.7 yards per carry this season, he needs about 17 carries to get Over 75.5 rushing yards.
Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 75.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Christian McCaffrey TNF same-game parlay
Christian McCaffrey Over 75.5 rushing yards
Christian McCaffrey anytime TD
Christian McCaffrey Over 33.5 receiving yards
Tying in an anytime TD to a McCaffrey prop feels like it should be a law, the Pro Bowler has 14 in 10 games this season, after all. He’s only gone scoreless once this season, and that came in a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in which he had 142 yards from scrimmage on 22 touches.
He’s been a machine all year and Seattle has allowed the seventh most rushing touchdowns in the league and hasn’t had to deal with a running back like McCaffrey.
What makes the 2015 Heisman runner-up so special is his ability to contribute in the passing game. He inherited his dad Ed’s hands and has been as dynamic a pass-catching back as the NFL has seen in the last decade.
For his career, McCaffrey is averaging 48.5 receiving yards per game and while that’s dropped some this season, he’s still at 36.4 per game. Since getting to San Francisco, he’s had at least 34 receiving yards in 12 of 21 games.
Seattle has also had trouble slowing running backs down in the passing game allowing 6.1 receptions for 48.3 receiving yards on 8.1 targets to running backs this season.
With Shanahan leaning heavily on CMC this season, he’s not going to stop now, especially against a rival in a game that’s going to carry a lot of weight in the NFC West down the stretch.
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