Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright and … Gerrit Cole? The next pitchers in line for 200 wins
NEW YORK — Like many around baseball, Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole caught Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw’s primal scream on Tuesday evening. Kershaw, an intense but far from demonstrative player, punctuated the final strikeout of his seven scoreless innings against the Mets by roaring as he walked off the mound at Dodger Stadium. The moment resonated with some of his peers in the sport.
“Dude,” Cole said, “he was on fire last night. I’ve never seen him like that. I was shocked by the photo I saw this morning.”
The outburst capped a historic achievement for Kershaw. He reached a milestone with the rare individual metric that reflects a collective pursuit: The pitcher win. Kershaw became the fourth active player to record 200 victories. He joined a group that includes Justin Verlander (244), Zack Greinke (223) and Max Scherzer (203).
For a certain generation of fan, the 200-win barrier does not represent a significant achievement. The 300-win mark used to be the general threshold for consideration among Hall of Fame voters. But the standards of evaluation have shifted along with the tides of the game. No longer are starting pitchers afforded the same opportunities as their predecessors. The importance of the starter has reduced as teams utilize openers, optimize bullpens and shorten outings.
But the accomplishment by Kershaw afforded an opportunity to survey the landscape of pitchers. Who else might join him at this plateau? Adam Wainwright, the 41-year-old Cardinals stalwart, is five victories away from turning the four-man club into a quintet. After that, it may be quite a while before another pitcher surpasses 200 victories. The best bet may be Cole, the 32-year-old right-hander who captured his 134th victory with a 10-strikeout shutout of the Twins on Sunday.
The predictive value of the statistic has been diminished, as baseball fans and executives alike recognize how much within a game resides outside one starting pitcher’s control. His offense might not show up on a given day. The bullpen might blow a lead. The other pitcher might just be better. So much can happen. Yet wins still carry meaning for those who accumulate them.
“If there’s one statistic that I like, it’s wins,” Cole said. “Because it takes everybody in the room to produce that win. Especially because I can’t hit any more, so somebody’s got to score for me. The best part about the wins is that it takes great coaching. It takes great game-planning. It takes great catching. It takes great offense. It takes great defense.
“So if a pitcher like Clayton — or when Verlander got it — is able to accomplish that, I think you just immediately think about everybody that contributed.”
Wainwright should join that group of 200-game winners this summer; he is recuperating from a strained groin muscle he suffered after returning from the World Baseball Classic. Years will pass before any other pitcher approaches the threshold. After Wainwright on the active list is Cole Hamels, the 39-year-old 163-game winner, who is currently in San Diego’s minor-league system. Hamels has not recorded a victory since 2019, in part because he has not appeared in a big-league game since a one-outing cameo in 2020.
Next is Johnny Cueto, with 143 victories. Cueto turned 37 in February. He has not won more than eight games in a season since 2017. He pitched once for the Marlins this season before landing on the injured list with biceps tightness. Madison Bumgarner, 33, has won 134 games, the same number as Cole. He is a year older. His arm looks far less lively. He could soon lose his spot in Arizona’s rotation. St. Louis shellacked him for seven runs in three innings on Wednesday afternoon. His ERA is 10.26. He has yet to win a game in 2023.
If Cole maintains his current trajectory, he should approach 200 in four or five seasons. He has never won a Cy Young Award. But he has accumulated far more victories than others who have picked up that particular piece of hardware, like Jacob deGrom (83 wins), Robbie Ray (74) and Corbin Burnes (37). His reliability stems from his durability. Cole has thrown 896 innings since 2018, more than any other pitcher. Cole has made at least 30 starts in every full season dating back to 2017. He tallied at least 200 innings in all but one of those years. At UCLA, where Cole starred for three seasons before becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft, coach John Savage pushed a simple mantra for his starters: If you outlast the opposing pitcher, you have a better chance of getting the victory.
Cole boasts an additional distinction. His .6537 career winning percentage ranked third among active pitchers heading into Wednesday’s games, behind Kershaw (.6944, the fifth-best mark in baseball history) and Scherzer (.6634), but just ahead of Verlander (.6472).
Some of the credit belongs to those he shared the diamond with. Cole debuted in 2013, the year Pittsburgh emerged from a lengthy stint in the basement of the National League Central. When the Pirates trended toward tanking, the team dealt him away to Houston, the preeminent force in the American League. When he reached free agency after the 2019 season, Cole inked a record-setting $324 million contract with the Yankees, a club that has reached the postseason in seven consecutive years. He has rarely played for a bad team; as such, he has finished only one season, 2016, with a losing record.
In the early weeks of April, Cole looks primed for one of the best seasons of his career. He has started four times. He has won all four starts. He has yet to permit a home run, which plagued him in the past. His ERA sits at 0.95. Cole credited his awareness, honed over more than a decade in the majors, for his recent output.
“I’m just trying to meet the demand of the situation,” he said. “Sometimes it’s making a down-and-away pitch. Sometimes it’s making an up-and-in pitch. Just put the ball where it needs to be.”
As Cole spoke, a totem of his success sat on the top shelf of his locker. It is a championship belt, similar to the one hoisted by professional wrestlers, only the straps are white and the emblem at the center is a Yankees logo. The team awards it to a player of the game. Cole still held the title after Sunday’s shutout. It signified, above all else, that the last time he pitched, he completed the assignment that matters most. The Yankees won.
