College Basketball Best Bets, March 6: UConn vs Marquette, Minnesota vs Indiana, and More!
Vaughn Dalzell shares his four favorite plays on the Wednesday slate, including Minnesota hosting Indiana, Marquette versus UConn, and more!
Indiana at Minnesota (-5.5): O/U 149.5
The Gophers have their final home game of the season following an epic comeback on Senior Day versus Penn State. Indiana has won two straight over Wisconsin and Maryland after losing five consecutive.
The Hoosiers are 3-6 in road games this season, ranking last in the Big Ten for free-throw percentage (64%) and bottom four in offensive turnover percentage (18.7%), offensive rebounding percentage (25%), and three-point percentage (31.6%).
Indiana has not won back-to-back road games all season and won at Maryland on Sunday. The Hoosiers beat the Gophers, 74-62, at Indiana earlier this season, so this is a revenge home spot for Minnesota.
The Gophers never led against Indiana and the Hoosiers were up by as much as 21 points. Indiana’s won three straight at Minnesota, but I like that streak to end today. This is the best Minnesota team in that span and versus the worst Indiana squad.
I expect Minnesota to control this game as the script often flips in Big Ten games according to location. Minnesota is 16-3 at home with five straight wins. The Gophers won by six or more points in 13 of those 16 victories.
I played Minnesota -5.5 at -110 odds and would go out to -6 for 1.5 units.
Pick: Minnesota -5.5 (1.5u)
Boston College at Miami (-6): O/U 151.0
Miami has lost seven straight games, while Boston College has dropped four consecutive. However, this is good news for the Hurricanes as they receive Nijel Pack and Wooga Poplar back from injury.
Both players have been out during parts of the losing streak, and Miami has had off since February 26. With such extended rest, Miami may come off rusty in the first half but should go on runs and benefit from having those back healthy.
Since February 10th, Boston College ranks 307th in defensive efficiency, doesn’t shoot free-throws (326th) often, or forces turnovers (310th) with subpar two-point (289th) and three-point percentages (334th) on defense.
This is Miami’s final home game of the season, where they are 11-5 on the year and looking to avoid a three-game losing streak at home.
I played Miami at -6 and -115 odds. I’d go out to -7 on the Hurricanes. Boston College has lost by eight or more points in four out of their last five losses.
Pick: Miami -6 (1u)
UConn (-5.5) at Marquette: O/U 151.5
UConn is coming off beating the breaks off of Seton Hall on Senior Day, while Marquette was without its star player Tyler Kolek in a loss at Creighton where they were very competitive for most of that contest.
Kolek is still out, which means everybody will load up on UConn as the road team. However, UConn’s lost 21 straight road games against top 10 ranked opponents dating back to 2014.
This spread has not moved since opening and I find that fishy. Marquette showed a will to fight without Kolek and I think they do the same on Senior Night. The Golden Eagles could get Oso Ighodaro back from injury here, which would be huge, literally, since he is a 6-foot-11 senior.
I played Marquette +5.5 at -115 odds and would sprinkle the ML at +175 or better. UConn beat Marquette, 81-53 earlier this season, so this is a spot that has been circled for the Golden Eagles.
Pick: Marquette +5.5 (1u)
Villanova at Seton Hall (-1): O/U 135.5
Villanova and Seton Hall meet again for a muc anticipated matchup to help both teams resume entering the Big East Tournament and Selection Sunday.
Villanova smacked Seton Hall, 80-54, at home on Feb. 11. The Pirates won three consective games after that Villanova meeting, then lost two straight against Creighton and UConn.
Both of these teams play at such slow tempos. Villanova is 347th in the nation and Seton Hall is 263rd. In February, Villanova plays at the 355th-quickest tempo or a top 10 slowest pace and one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the Big East.
Seton Hall has the best offensive rebounding ranks in the conference at home and top four in multiple defensive categories, including turnover percentage (16.6%), three-point percentage (31.2%), and adjusted efficiency.
I lean Seton Hall to win, but I prefer a fade on Villanova’s offense in the first 20 minutes. I played Villanova’s First Half Team Total Under 31.5 at -108 odds. I would go down to 30.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Villanova 1H Team Total Under 31.5 (1u)
Season Record: 62-52 (54.3%) +5.25 units
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