College Football Player Props Week 12: Predictions & Picks

We continue to march toward the end of the season with our Week 12 college football player props based on the best NCAAF odds.

Week 11 was another winning week for my college football player props, where I went 4-2 for plus-1.9 units between this column and our weekly expert picks piece. That puts me at plus-5.64 units on the year with just two weeks remaining in the regular season.

This column continues to be focused on the process, but it's nice to get the results we have wanted over the last two weeks. Let's continue to finish strong by cashing some more tickets in Week 12, shall we?

Here are our best college football player props for Week 12 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football player props for Week 12

• Joseph Griffin Jr. 25-plus receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel) - Boston College vs. Pittsburgh ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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College football player props for Thursday Week 12

Joseph Griffin Jr. 25-plus receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Boston College passing offense is a bit underrated by the market ahead of a favorable matchup. Eagles quarterback Thomas Castellanos has a passing yardage mark of about 171 against a Pittsburgh pass defense that is surrendering more than 200 yards per game. That's because Castellanos has failed to throw for more than 165 yards in three straight weeks.

While there is value in betting on a discounted passing line for Castellanos, I prefer betting on his No. 2 receiver in this matchup. Sophomore Joseph Griffin Jr. is averaging 30.7 receiving yards per game, clearing this mark in five of his last eight outings. But the underlying metrics suggest that Griffin is due for a bit more.

According to PFF, Griffin is second on the team in targets with 52. That is five behind Lewis Bond, who has a receiving prop of 40.5 yards in this game. The main difference is that Bond has caught 37 passes, while Griffin has snagged 24 of his targets. Bond has dropped one more pass than Griffin, illustrating there just might be some weird variance to explain the gap in production between these two receivers.

Even if Griffin's season continues the way it has, I'm projecting 35 receiving yards in this matchup. His Over/Under has been set at 25.5 across our best sports betting apps, with the Over juiced to -115 at most places. But you can take advantage of a slight discount by placing this bet through FanDuel's alternate market with a price of -110. DraftKings has a -130 value on 25-plus yards, while bet365 lists the same total at -120.

This alternate market likely won't last long, but it's an example of how sportsbooks are still making minor mistake even in Week 12. This prop would still be playable at 25.5 receiving yards based on our projection, but Boston College's entire passing offense might be worth buying in this matchup.

Our Mike Spector seems to agree with that sentiment, according to his top Boston College vs. Pittsburgh prediction.

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Joseph Griffin Jr. college football player prop made 11/15/2023 at 3:55 p.m. ET.

College football betting odds pages

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