College football predictions: Picks, tips for Week 10
We’re now on to Week 10 of the college football season, and there are several huge matchups on the horizon with the top teams having had their bye weeks already.
The SEC has a pair of huge contests with LSU traveling to Alabama, and the winner will likely take the SEC West, and the SEC East is also up for grabs with Missouri getting their chance to face No. 1 Georgia.
Below I’ve picked the biggest games from this week’s NCAAF slate, including four SEC matchups and a pair of Power Five contests involving teams ranked inside the Top 25.
(Lines from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, as of Friday, Nov. 3)
Game of the Week
No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama
Line: LSU (+3, +130) at Alabama (-155), 61.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 6:45 p.m. (CBS)
Analysis: LSU still has a chance to win the SEC despite having lost two games already, but they’ll need to win this week on the road against a Nick Saban-led Alabama team if they want any chance of doing so.
It’s clear that the Tigers biggest strength is their offense and that the Crimson Tide are stronger on defense, so it will be interesting to see if Jayden Daniels will be able to keep performing at an elite level, but he was able to deliver last season against the Crimson Tide in an upset victory.
The Crimson Tide should be able to put up points against a struggling Tigers defense, but they’ve yet to face an offense as powerful LSU’s this season, so I feel like the Tigers have the talent to win outright and appear to be a solid play with the points.
The pick: LSU +3
SEC best bets
No. 12 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia
Line: Missouri (+15, +500) at Georgia (-700), 55.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 2:30 p.m. (CBS)
Analysis: Georgia appears to have shaken off the rust after some lackluster performances earlier this season, but they could be in for a test this Saturday against a surging Missouri team.
The Bulldogs defense is still elite having allowed no more than 21 points in a game this season, but the Tigers offense has been extremely consistent having averaged over 30 points a game and has an explosive passing game that could pose a threat.
The Tigers gave the Bulldogs some trouble last season, and while the Tigers defense likely won’t slow down the Bulldogs enough for them to pull the upset on the road, they should be able to keep things close enough to cover the spread.
The pick: Missouri +15
Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole Miss
Line: Texas A&M (+3, +126) at Ole Miss (-150), 52 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Analysis: Ole Miss hasn’t looked very impressive during their four-game SEC winning streak outside of a huge win over LSU, so it’s hard to know what to expect from them this week against Texas A&M.
The Rebels are in position to make it five straight SEC wins considering that they’re at home against an Aggies that’s struggled to move the ball consistently, but the Aggies have the talent on defense to keep games close even if they struggle score.
I’ll go ahead and take the under as a result since the Rebels haven’t shown me enough for me to feel confident in them covering along with the recent success of both team’s defenses.
The pick: UNDER 52 points
Arkansas at Florida
Line: Arkansas (+3, +140) at Florida (-165), 49 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 11 a.m. (ESPN2)
Analysis: Florida has been the definition of a mediocre SEC team, but the good thing about that is that they’ve been predictable from a betting perspective unlike Arkansas.
The Razorbacks have given some of the SEC’s best trouble in some surprisingly close matchups, but they’ve also struggled against some lesser opponents as evidenced by a winless record during SEC play.
The Gators still have a shot at quality bowl game unlike the Razorbacks, so I’ll bank on them delivering another predictable result at home and winning by at least a touchdown.
The pick: Florida -3
Other plays
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 22 Oklahoma State
Line: Oklahoma (-6, -235) at Oklahoma State (+192), 62 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 2:30 p.m. (ABC)
Analysis: Oklahoma is coming off a brutal loss, but it’s created more intrigue leading up to this week’s much-anticipated matchup against in-state rival Oklahoma State.
While the Sooners CFP hopes took a major hit last week, there’s still a path for them potentially if they win the rest of their games, and they’ve fared well recently against the Cowboys even when on the road.
The Cowboys have momentum having turned their season around after a brutal start, but I’ll bank on the Sooners bouncing back this week considering they’ll be hungry and are simply the more talented team.
The pick: Oklahoma -6
No. 5 Washington at No. 20 USC
Line: Washington (-3, -155) at USC (+130), 77 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 6:30 p.m. (ABC)
Analysis: This matchup is tough to handicap considering that Washington is the more complete team on paper than USC, but they’ve struggled enough away from home to where it feels like a coin flip.
Huskies quarterback Michael Penix stepped up when needed against Oregon a few weeks ago, but he hasn’t been quite sharp in the weeks prior and now has to go toe-to-toe with a fellow elite quarterback in the Trojans Caleb Williams.
Penix and the Huskies should be able to get a rhythm going against the suspect Trojans defense, but they’ll likely trade blows with Williams to where the over feels like the best play here despite the total being set so high.
