College football predictions: Three players props to target
With college football just two weeks away, sportsbooks are now offering season-long player props. Statistics — including passing, rushing and receiving totals — are available for some of the most high-profile players in the country.
Total touchdowns are also a popular market that has migrated from the NFL to the college game.
Though NFL prop markets have been finely tuned, college football’s foray into season-long props presents bettors with multiple opportunities to pounce on mis-priced odds.
With that in mind, I’ve identified three players I believe are primed to blow their respective props out of the water.
Cade Klubnik (Clemson, QB): Over 3,050 passing yards
Clemson made one of the nation’s best hires this offseason when they lured offensive coordinator Garrett Riley away from TCU.
Riley turned career backup Max Duggan into a Heisman Trophy finalist who threw for 3,043 yards in 11 regular-season starts last year.
That explains books hanging this number, but they’re not accounting for Klubnik’s ceiling (five-star in 2022 class) nor Clemson’s schedule, which features a handful of dreadful pass defenses (Charleston Southern, Florida Atlantic, Wake Forest, North Carolina).
In his two starts last fall against ranked opponents, Klubnik averaged 300 yards per game through the air. Toss in two young receivers — Beaux Collins and Antonio Williams — who are ready to be breakout stars in 2023, and there are more than enough reasons to play this over.
Trey Benson (Florida State, RB): Over 1,000.5 rushing yards
When it comes to running back props, I’m looking for a play-caller who favors the run, a thin running backs room and a decent sample size of on-field success.
Florida State, despite having a Heisman-caliber quarterback this fall, actually ran it at a healthy clip in 2022 (53.5 percent).
Alex Atkins returns as the Seminoles’ offensive coordinator and should continue to lean on the run, because when he did dial up runs, they were highly successful.
The Seminoles finished eighth in yards per carry last season, and Benson’s top competition for carries, Treshaun Ward, is off to Kansas State.
Benson closed the regular season on a tear, racking up 593 yards in Florida State’s final five games, while averaging 17 carries per game.
That kind of production would put him on pace for a 1,400-plus yard season.
He’ll be the bell cow this fall and will be afforded every opportunity to be one of the nation’s leading rushers.
Malik Nabers (LSU, WR): Over 6.5 receiving TDs
The Tigers’ passing game is brimming with potential, and Nabers is in line to be the beneficiary of their year-over-year growth.
In LSU’s final two games, Nabers blew up (14 receptions, 291 yards, two TDs), which explains why he was named to the preseason All-SEC first-team by the media.
There’s also the potential of a time-share at quarterback for LSU, which usually would be bad news for receiving props, but in the case of the Bayou Bengals, could mean even more yardage through the air.
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Garrett Nussmeier, LSU’s current backup, saw significant time in the Tigers’ final two games — against Georgia in the SEC title game and versus Purdue in the Citrus Bowl.
He averaged more than 11 yards per attempt in those contests and tossed four touchdown passes.
As an added bonus, in Brian Kelly’s final three full seasons at Notre Dame (removing the COVID year), his top wide receivers averaged more than nine touchdowns per season. Nabers will flirt with 10-plus touchdowns this season in the SEC.
