College football spread picks: Predictions for Week 5 of 2023 season

College football isn’t just one of the best sports to watch on a Saturday afternoon, it’s also one of the best to find ways to make plenty of cash as a sharp sports bettor. Each week we’ll find the best value for NCAA football games against the spread, total, and on the moneyline so you can make plenty of cash. No touts, no fees, and just the best numbers we can find.

Here are our best picks on the board to get all the dollars in Week 5 of FBS football. All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Collin Sherwin: 2023 Record 6-5-1

South Florida +3.5 vs. Navy

Things I don’t get to say very often: My alma mater has a functional football team! The Bulls hit people and have a front seven that belies their status in the American. They might have issues in coverage, but match up well against a Navy team without a bunch of outside skill guys that can run free.

Meanwhile quarterback Byrum Brown looks to be getting his bearings under new head coach Alex Golesh, and the Bulls have a wide receiver in Naiem Simmons that put up perhaps the best stat line in the history of the sport against Rice last week (seriously, look it up).

But the bigger reason for this choice is that as Navy continues to try and get away from its triple option roots, the transition is going to be long and ugly. The Bulls can swarm them up front, should show good discipline ... and they might score in droves. Money line is totally fine here as well.

LSU -2.5 vs. Ole Miss

Who do you trust in a battle where the Tigers have more talent and Brian Kelly on the sidelines? Lane Kiffin’s terrific story in Oxford doesn’t seem to be playing out so well the past couple weeks, and the whispers are turning into murmurs. Meanwhile this line factors in a poopr performance from LSU in Week 1 against an FSU team that appears to be Very Good At Worst. Two teams trending in opposite directions here.

Texas State -6 vs. Southern Miss

My friend Seth Varnadore got me rabbit holing this one, and by the numbers this should turn into a beating. The Bobcats are 90th via SP+, and beat Baylor before losing by seven on the road to a UTSA team that still had Frank Harris under center.

But as per usual, betting against teams is the way to make money in college football, and Southern Miss is simply awful. 109th in SP+, just 215 yards passing and two interceptions against a terrible Arkansas State team in the Tree Stand, but most importantly allowing 44 points and 6.5 yards per play to that putrid Butch Jones team.

The Bobcats should be able to score at will, and will only need a few stops in the run game to get over the hump at The Rock.

Nick Simon: 2023 Record 7-4-1

Utah +3.5 vs. Oregon State

This should be another really good Pac-12 showdown and again, it’s a shame this league is dying with how deep it is this year. Cam Rising or no Cam Rising, bet against Utah at your own risk. The two-time defending Pac-12 champions have a vicious defense and they are perfectly comfortable winning ugly, especially in cool and chilly conditions like it will be in Corvallis on Friday night. I think the Utes turn this into a slugfest and I’m picking them to cover as a road underdog.

LSU -2.5 vs. Ole Miss

It’s very weird to see LSU playing Ole Miss this early in the season as this is historically a Halloween/November rivalry. Ole Miss blew the only opportunity they had at beating Alabama last week and their offense was rendered obsolete. It continues to be concerning that Quinshon Judkins just hasn’t been a huge factor for them and they’ll go up against an LSU front that held Arkansas to just 3.7 yards per carry last week. I now think they’re a tad bit overrated and the Tigers will easily cover in Oxford.

Notre Dame vs. Duke Under 52

Shoutout to Duke and Mike Elko for getting College Gameday on campus this Saturday. There was always going to be a bodyblow/hangover element for Notre Dame in this game after playing Ohio State and that’s especially the case with the way they lost. Duke has the 24th ranked defense in SP+ and like last year, they are one of the nation’s top teams in turnover margins. I think Elko and company turns this into a slugfest and they have familiarity playing Sam Hartman. Give me the under here.

Grace McDermott: 2023 4-7-1

Kansas +17 vs. Texas

This undefeated Jayhawks team is starting to look very interesting. Jalon Daniels and the rest of the Kansas team certainly drew some eyes to the program last year — and lest we forget the 2021 Jayhawks victory in Austin. The Jayhawks couldn’t hang with the Longhorns last year, but they give Texas fits sometimes, and I’m betting on this being one of those times.

Louisville -3 vs. NC State

Louisville has come out of nowhere as a legitimate ACC contender with quarterback Jack Plummer leading the charge. After NC State’s near-loss to a very bad Virginia team last week while the Cardinals were beating up on Boston College, I think Louisville can take the opportunity to make a huge statement at Carter-Finley this weekend.

Duke +5.5 vs. Notre Dame

Full disclosure: I am a Notre Dame alum and fan and may be heading into this weekend with more pessimism than is warranted. But let’s look at the facts — the Irish players and coaching staff are heading into an away game that is much more challenging than originally thought after a completely demoralizing home loss to Ohio State. Riley Leonard is the real deal, and Duke absolutely has the tools to cover against Notre Dame here, especially if the Irish can’t shake last week’s loss.

Chris Landers: 2023 Record 3-4-2

Utah +3.5 at Oregon State

Bet against Kyle Whittingham at your own risk, especially when you’re giving him the hook. It sounds like Cam Rising will finally make his season debut for the Utes, but even if he doesn’t, these are two teams who like to run the ball and play defense — exactly the sort of style in which Utah excels, and a style that doesn’t lend itself to a ton of points. Oregon State will come out salty after last week’s loss on the Paloose, but Jonathan Smith and Co. haven’t had a ton of success winning in the trenches the past few times these teams have met, and I think this number is too big in what should wind up a relatively low-scoring affair. (I also remain a little bit skeptical of D.J. Uiagalelei in what is easily his toughest matchup since heading out west.)

USC at Colorado over 73.5

Yes, this number is preposterous, and yes, I’m still taking the over. First thing’s first: USC will be able to name their number against this Colorado defense. That’s not controversial, is it? This total comes down to how much the Buffs will be able to contribute, and I have a lot of faith on that front. Lincoln Riley’s blind faith in the Alex Grinch Defensive Experiment appears to have once again yielded little if any improvement, with the Trojans giving up 28 points to a truly dire Arizona State team down to its third quarterback last Saturday night. That game very nearly cleared this number, winding up at 70. Now SC has to go and try to tackle in space against Colorado’s athletes, at altitude, with the Buffaloes motivated to prove last week’s pantsing at Oregon was a fluke? This game will be played at warp speed, and punters will be optional.

Notre Dame at Duke over 52

A far more reasonable number here, likely a reaction to the 17-14 war the Irish just fought against Ohio State last Saturday. But styles make fights, and while Notre Dame wanted to lean on the Buckeyes defense and play keep away, the story won’t be the same in Durham against a very game Duke offense. Riley Leonard showed just how electric he can be in the season-opening upset of Clemson, and I think he’ll put up enough points to force Notre Dame to respond in kind — and play at a much quicker pace than we saw last Saturday. NC State isn’t a terrible comp here, and despite being played in a tropical storm, the Wolfpack and Irish combined for 69 points a couple of weeks ago. The Blue Devils have a much more trustworthy offense than State does, and they likely don’t have the answers for Audric Estime and this Irish offensive line.

Chinmay Vaidya: 2023 Record 6-5-1

NC State ML vs. Louisville (+140)

The Cardinals have quietly climbed to 4-0 under Jeff Brohm, but face their toughest test when they meet Dave Doeren’s 3-1 Wolfpack. NC State had a close call against a bad Virginia team and that’s likely where this line comes from, but going into Raleigh is always a tough proposition. I’ll take NC State as a home underdog in Week 5.

Clemson-USC-Michigan-Pitt ML parlay (+169)

The Trojans should handle Colorado, Michigan will run all over Nebraska and Clemson is likely to come back from last week’s loss to take down Syracuse. This basically comes down to a bad Pitt team taking on an even worse Virginia Tech team. The Panthers have won the last three matchups in this series and Phil Jurkovec is due for one of those games where everyone thinks he can be a productive quarterback.

Florida-Ole Miss ML parlay (+392)

The Gators and Rebels are both moneyline underdogs this weekend in rivalry games. Florida is going on the road to play a Kentucky team it has been floundering against recently, losing the last two matchups and three of the last five. The Gators have already got a big win over Tennessee this season, and I think they follow that up with another rivalry win. As for the Rebels, they’re coming off a rough loss to Alabama where they looked lethargic. Ole Miss has not been all that good in the Magnolia Bowl but the last four wins for them in this series have all come in Oxford. LSU is the better team but got a big scare from Arkansas. The Rebels still have enough to play for this season, and I think they’ll bounce back with a win.

Teddy Ricketson: 2023 Record 4-4-1

Georgia State -1.5 vs. Troy (-108)

Darren Grainger and Marcus Carroll are developing into quite the 1,2 punch. In their last game against Coastal Carolina, Grainger threw for only 191 yards and a touchdown but added 47 yards and a score on the ground. Carroll had a great game, picking up 150 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries. GA State has scored at least 30 points in all four games this season and should be able to cover on the road.

LSU -2.5 vs. Ole Miss (-112)

Ole Miss is coming off a 14-point loss to Alabama on the road. Jaxson Dart couldn’t get much going as he finished 20-of-35 passing for 244 yards with an interception. LSU survived against Arkansas, escaping the close game with a three-point victory. Jayden Daniels continued to impress with 320 passing yards and four touchdowns to one interception. The Tigers are on the road in this game, but they should cover if their defense can pick up a few more stops than they did in their last game.

South Carolina +12.5 vs. Tennessee (-110)

I’ve refrained from picking the Gamecocks this season because last year every time I did, they let me down. South Carolina goes on the road, and Tennessee will be wearing its black uniforms. One of the biggest wins for South Carolina last season was at home against then-No. 5 Tennessee. The Gamecocks’ defense is in for a tough test, but the semblance of a run game they demonstrated against Mississippi State should help them cover in a big game on Saturday.