College football spread picks: Predictions for Week 6 of 2023 season
College football isn’t just one of the best sports to watch on a Saturday afternoon, it’s also one of the best to find ways to make plenty of cash as a sharp sports bettor. Each week we’ll find the best value for NCAA football games against the spread, total, and on the moneyline so you can make plenty of cash. No touts, no fees, and just the best numbers we can find.
Here are our best picks on the board to get all the dollars in Week 6 of FBS football. All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
Collin Sherwin: 2023 Record 8-6-1
Western Kentucky -6 vs. Louisiana Tech
This fees like it’s going to be 5.5 by kickoff or less, and I just think the market is wrong here. La Tech is beat up, WKU has Austin Reed firing on all cylinders, and there’s an extra day of rest for the Towels.
The Bulldogs defense is 120th in SP+, and that feels generous. WKU might have struggled out of the league, but the Tops are here to win the C-USA title and should cruise here. I’d hold out for the hook if possible, but don’t pay more than 6 of course.
C. Florida -2 vs. Kansas
I’m a USF grad, so clearly there is no bias in this pick. The Knights have been a smidge snakebit so far, and with Jason Bean back under center for the Jayhawks instead of Jalon Daniels it seems, look for Gus Malzahn to get the ship righted in Lawrence.
Former South Florida QB Timmy McClain can’t be held accountable for the Knights woes so far (that’s just Karma for having the worst fans in college sports... they are American Millwall), but it looks like 17th-year sophomore John Rhys Plumlee will be back under center. And while the Oviedo defense is ranked 44th by SP+, the bigger issue is Kansas can’t get a stop while 94th in SP+. Without one of the most dynamic QB’s in the country in Daniels (take a redshirt my friend, we’d love to see you back in 2025), this looks like a layup.
FYI USF is the first public school to be added to the American Association of Universities in four decades, and if this bet doesn’t hit the Knights will be 0-3 in the Big 12. I can’t really lose here.
North Texas-Navy Over 61
Navy: 120 in SP+ offense, 96 in SP+ defense (and that’s super fraudulent).
North Texas: 35th in SP+ offense, 133 in SP+ defense (that’s dead last).
I’ve watched basically every snap of Navy this year. They’re horrendous on both sides of the ball, but particularly on defense. UNT gave up 31 to Abilene Christian, 37 to La Tech, 46 to FIU, and 58 to Bad Cal. Even Navy is getting 40 here, and they might lose! And some places had this line at 54.5 which is batty!
Sometimes you don’t have to dig that deep. Take the freebie here.
Nick Simon: 2023 Record 8-6-1
Oklahoma vs. Texas Under 60.5
It’s Red River Rivalry time at the State Fair of Texas this Saturday and you may be thinking “ahh man, Quinn Ewers and Dillon Gabriel are going to light up the scoreboard. This is going to be a shootout!” Wrong!
Both teams are bringing highly ranked defensive units to the Cotton Bowl this weekend, with both among the country’s best in both SP+ and FPI. Ted Roof’s OU defense hasn’t been the disaster it was last year as it ranks 10th in the nation in defensive third down conversion percentage and is tied for fourth in turnover margin. Texas is right above OU at ninth in defensive third down conversion percentage and have absolutely stonewalled opponents in the red zone with a 50% conversion rate. Both of these high-powered offenses are going to have to really work to put points on the board in this one, so I’m picking the under.
Missouri +6.5 vs. LSU
LSU has fallen back into untrustworthy status after its abysmal defensive performance against Ole Miss last Saturday. Matt House’s unit gave up over 700 yards of offense to the Rebels last week and that’s highly concerning for a team that was supposed to contend for another SEC West title this year. Meanwhile, there’s plenty of juice to this Missouri offense and wide receiver Luther Burden III has been a monster. This is going to be the biggest SEC home game for Mizzou in quite some time and I’ll go with the Show Me State Tigers to cover against the bayou Tigers.
Wyoming ML vs. Fresno State
One of the underrated banger games of the weekend will be this Mountain West showdown between Fresno State and Wyoming and it will have a Saturday night national audience on FOX. At 5-0, Fresno is currently in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl slot and quarterback UCF transfer quarterback Mikey Keene has been excellent in his first year with the program. Meanwhile, Wyoming has also re-emerged as a Mountain West title contender and running back Harrison Waylee has been on a tear the last few weeks. It’s very difficult for teams to go on the road to Laramie and win...just ask Texas Tech. That’s why I’m giving the edge to the Cowboys here.
Grace McDermott: 2023 Record 4-9-2
Oregon State -9.5 vs. Cal
Oregon State may have fallen to Washington State, but that 21-7 win over Utah put them back on the map. The Oregon State defense has held its opponents to single digits in three of five games this season, and the Beavers are 3-2 against the spread this season. I like a 10-point win over Cal on the road.
Ole Miss -11.5 vs. Arkansas
Ole Miss figured something out last week, some sort of magic with Jaxson Dart. Arkansas does not have the same offensive guys that LSU has, so I’m not worried about the Hogs running up the score here and making it a shootout like last week. If the Rebels offense can continue to play at the level they displayed against LSU, this should be a no-brainer.
Alabama -2.5 vs. Texas A&M
I’ve got a lot of favorites in my picks this week! OK, so A&M beat up on Arkansas last week. But does that mean they keep Bama within a field goal? I know the Tide made doubters of many of us with that shaky start to their season, but they held back an Ole Miss offense that went on to score 55 points in the next week. The Tide have had some slow starts, but they should be able to cover on the road here.
Chris Landers: 2023 Record 4-6-2
Kentucky vs. Georgia under 48
Here are the totals for the last four Kentucky-Georgia games: 22, 43, 17, 21. Since Kirby Smart and Mark Stoops both got their programs firing on all cylinders, this matchup has been, quite simply, the stuff unders are made of, and I think we’re headed that way again on Saturday. Georgia has come in under this total in each of its games against Power 5 opponents so far this year, and neither of them (South Carolina and Auburn) have featured a defense in the same class as what they’re going to see from the Wildcats. I don’t think the Dawgs will score a ton of points in this game, and Kentucky has simply never been able to score much at all against Georgia. It’s a particularly tough matchup — Kentucky wants to win up front and build play-action off of that, and that’s an awfully hard thing to do against a team with such a strength and athleticism advantage in the trenches — and if this game gets put into Devin Leary’s hands, he’s yet to show that he’s up for that challenge. I’m expecting another slugfest in Athens.
Iowa -2.5 vs. Purdue
Lord help me, I’m backing the Hawkeyes. Yes, Iowa is down to backup QB Deacon Hill, but given how limited Cade McNamara had been in recent weeks — really, ever since getting dinged up in fall camp — I’m not sure that’ll actually be that much of a downgrade. And besides, Brian Ferentz shouldn’t have to throw the ball much at all here: Purdue’s defense has gotten absolutely paved on the ground this year, allowing a combined 466 yards on 84 carries in home losses to Wisconsin and Syracuse. The best unit in this game, by far, is the Iowa defense, as good as ever under stalwart coordinator Phil Parker, and Graham Harrell asking Hudson Card to throw the ball 40 times against that zone feels like a recipe for at least one pick-six. Giving less than a field goal, that edge is more than enough for me — especially at Kinnick.
LSU vs. Missouri over 63.5
I was tempted to join some of my colleagues in backing the Tigers (Mizzou version) and the points here, but the wounded animal that is LSU (plus not getting a full seven) has me a little spooked, so I’ll target the total instead. Nick laid out how ugly things have gotten for the LSU defense above, but just to reiterate: Matt House’s unit gave up 9.3 yards per pass attempt to an Arkansas team that flatly cannot throw the ball, then allowed over 700 yards of offense to an Ole Miss team that flatly couldn’t block Alabama two weeks ago. Jaxson Dart, by contrast, had all kinds of time against the Tigers, and if they afford the same to Brady Cook and Luther Burden, look out. Really, though, this is as much about Jayden Daniels as it is about Missouri; he’s got the Bayou Bengals clicking on offense, and LSU has cleared this total against every functional offense they’ve played (all due respect to both Grambling and Mississippi State). Missouri easily clears that bar, and we should be in for some fireworks in this spot.
Chinmay Vaidya: 2023 Record 6-7-2
Missouri +6.5 vs. LSU
The Bayou Bengals are coming off an emotional loss in the Magnolia Bowl, and an early Saturday kickoff on the road in Columbia might lead to a slow start. On the flip side, Mizzou is absolutely rolling offensively with Brady Cook and Luther Burden forming one of the most underrated QB-WR tandems in America. I’ll also be taking Mizzou on the moneyline as a home underdog at +225.
Georgia -14.5 vs. Kentucky
You can protect yourself a bit with an alt line of Georgia -13.5 (-135) but this game has usually been a slam dunk for the Bulldogs in Athens. They’ve taken out the Wildcats the last six times at home and have covered this spread in the last five at home. After getting a scare against Auburn, I expect Kirby Smart’s team to come out swinging. Kentucky has become a strong program in the SEC East under Mark Stoops but Georgia will quickly make them realize there’s still a big climb left to get to the top.
Oklahoma (+6) -Louisville (+6.5) ATS parlay (+264)
Let’s get wild in Week 6. You can parlay the Sooners and Cardinals on the moneyline at +845 if you’re not feeling the ATS play. Texas has looked excellent on both sides of the ball, but they’ve yet to face a quarterback like Dillon Gabriel. I believe this Oklahoma team will push the Longhorns to the limit and likely win outright. Gabriel is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country and I’ll back the Sooners in the shootout. Louisville has been impressive under Jeff Brohm and is coming off a nice comeback win over NC State. Notre Dame has had some close calls in the last few weeks, and I think the Cardinals knock them off as a home underdog.
Teddy Ricketson: 2023 Record 4-7-1
Washington State +3.5 vs. UCLA (-110)
The Cougars will be on the road for this matchup, which is likely why they are the underdogs. Washington State is coming off a three-point victory over then-No. 14 Oregon State. Quarterback Cameron Ward was dominant with 404 yards and four passing touchdowns while adding another score on the ground. UCLA will get their first chance to respond after a one-score loss to Utah, and I think they come up short enough that Washington State covers.
Colorado -4.5 vs. Arizona State
Just because the Buffaloes aren’t playing a ranked team this week doesn’t mean I don’t have my eye on them. They were blown out by Oregon two weeks ago and then battled against USC last week. That was Deion Sanders’ first chance to respond to a loss, and Colorado lost by seven to the then-rankled No. 8 Trojans. Arizona State will be at home but have dropped four games in a row. Colorado may have Travis Hunter back for this one, but even if they don’t, I think they cover on the road.
North Carolina -8.5 vs. Syracuse
The Tar Heels have won four games in a row, most recently a 17-point victory over Pitt. Drake Maye finished with 296 yards passing and added one touchdown that he threw with his left hand while being tackled. The Carolina defense stepped up big and should be able to handle Garrett Shrader and the Orange. Syracuse lost by 17 to Clemson, and wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army may not have prepared them much for their conference slate.
