Corner Picks, best soccer bets, predictions odds: Arsenal shocked by West Ham, AC Milan keep rolling, more

cbssports.com

14 April 2023

Serie A is extremely confusing this season and nearly impossible to figure out. Well, OK, it's not difficult to figure it out in some aspects. If you look at our Serie A betting results in this column, you'd think we've cracked the code, but those results are part of why I don't know what's happening!

All my metrics suggest that, compared to recent seasons, when the league wasn't getting as much respect as it deserved for its quality, this is a down season. While Napoli is fantastic, they aren't dominating the league simply because they're so good but because everybody else who is usually good has taken a step back. Every weekend in league play sees a team that should be finishing in the top four dropping points against somebody they have no right to drop points against. It's as if these teams are allergic to finishing in a Champions League place.

Yet, when it comes to the actual European competitions, Serie A is having a great time. Of the six Italian teams (let's call them Sei Grandi), the only two who lost this week were Napoli and Roma, and Napoli lost to AC Milan. Roma lost after losing both Paulo Dybala and Tammy Abraham to injury in their match against Feyenoord. The league is performing so well that it's putting out hype videos and proclaiming that calcio is back.

So is Serie A good this season or not? I have no idea, but it's entertaining, even if it's not always the "right" way to be entertaining. That's good enough. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Bologna vs. AC Milan

While we're crushing Serie A this season, there's only one match in the league this weekend that I feel particularly strong about, and it's this one. I'll admit, part of me is worried that I'm reading too much into Milan's performance against Napoli on Wednesday because, even when they've played like crap, Milan have played well against Napoli all season. Milan have also been much better at home than on the road (though they're still good), and Bologna are an odd team that tend to pull a result out of nowhere.

However, while Milan have problems, their attack has taken a step forward recently. While there was the four-goal outburst against Napoli, Milan have been quite unlucky in other matches. In their five most recent matches outside that 4-0 win, Milan have scored only three goals on 8.1 xG (expected goals). It has won only one of those five matches due to it. Some of it's a lack of clinical finishing, and some of it's excellent goalkeeping. Most of it is bad luck, and while Bologna are solid defensively at home, the dam is likely to break sooner than later. The two wins over Napoli might be the spark this Milan team needs. The Pick: AC Milan (+140)

Featured Game| Bologna vs. AC Milan

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Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United

Sorry, but I'm making you wake up early Saturday morning for this one, and don't expect a lot of excitement! When Newcastle United got their new Saudi ownership, we knew an influx of cash was coming that would improve the team, but it was supposed to take a few years before we saw the results we're currently seeing. Newcastle enter the weekend third in the Premier League, and they've gotten there by having one of the best defenses in the league. Newcastle have allowed only 21 goals in 29 matches on an xG allowed of 28.8. While that may suggest they're due for regression, that xG allowed is mostly the result of teams taking a bunch of bad shots against Newcastle from long range. Newcastle rank second in the league in xG allowed per shot, and the 3.1 shots on target allowed per match are third. Simply put, unless you're a very good team, you will have a difficult time scoring against Newcastle.

Are Aston Villa a very good team? They've played like one under Unai Emery. Looking at the Premier League table from the day Emery replaced Steven Gerrard, Villa have the third-most points in the league. They've won six of their last seven matches and allowed only two goals in those seven matches. In other words, we've got a battle between two teams playing very well because of their defense. This isn't the kind of matchup that should result in an outbreak of scoring. The Pick: Under 2.5 (-125)

Featured Game| Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United

West Ham United vs. Arsenal

Arsenal fans are a bit nervous. While Arsenal remain atop the league, they were battered in a 2-2 draw against Liverpool last week that saw Liverpool compile an xG of 3.9. While that's an outlier performance from this Arsenal squad, there is some signal in that noise. Arsenal have been much worse on the road this season (though still very good compared to others), and their defending has dipped in recent months, even if the results have papered over it.

Now Arsenal are away from home for the second straight week against a West Ham team desperate to survive. The Hammers picked up a massive 1-0 win over Fulham last week to get out of the bottom three, but they're far from safe. They've also been much better defensively outside a 5-1 battering by Newcastle 10 days ago. With Arsenal feeling the heat from Manchester City breathing down their neck and West Ham playing at home (where they average 1.42 xG per match compared to 1.11 on the road), there's a good chance we could be in for a "shocking" result Sunday morning. The Pick: West Ham or Draw (+130)

Featured Game| West Ham United vs. Arsenal