Cubs odds, picks, predictions: Best bet for Cubs vs Nationals (July 17)

The Chicago Cubs take on the Washington Nationals today, and we have Cubs odds, picks and predictions featuring our best bet for this July 17 game.

The starting pitching matchup is brutal, and neither team is strong in the bullpen department. But I can talk myself into the offensive potential on each squad.

So, I’ll hammer the Over for our best bet for Cubs vs. Nationals today.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Nationals (+120) vs. Cubs (-142)

Spread: Nationals +1.5 (-164) vs. Cubs -1.5 (+136)

Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

• Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.

• (8:05 p.m. CT, MARQ)
• Probable pitchers: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) vs. Drew Smyly (LHP)

MacKenzie Gore was one of my favorite pitchers to bet on in the early season. Alas, the lefty that Washington acquired in the Juan Soto deal has lost his way.

Gore has a 5.97 ERA over his past seven starts. He most recently posted a disastrous outing against the Phillies, allowing seven earned runs while generating only five whiffs.

The biggest issue is command. Gore has a lively four-seam fastball but often struggles to locate it, and those struggles have reared their ugly head.

Gore’s walk rate is over 10% after issuing multiple walks in four consecutive starts.

It’s easy to tell I’m low on Gore.

I’m also low on Drew Smyly. He started the year hot, but he’s taken a significant step back in recent weeks.

Smyly only throws three pitches, relying mostly upon his curveball (48% usage). When he’s not spinning or locating the curve well, he’s not pitching well.

Smyly’s been hanging a lot more curveballs lately.

So, somewhat predictably, Smyly has a 7.66 ERA over the past month. Woof.

I’m not very high on either lineup, but these two starting pitchers are allergic to run prevention. Between Jeimer Candelario, Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki and Christopher Morel, you have to think runs will be scored.

There’s also no reason to believe the relievers will perform any better. These two bullpens have a combined ERA of around 6.00 over the past two weeks (around 40 IP).

The wind is blowing straight out to center field for Monday’s matchup at Wrigley, with BallParkPal projecting a +16% home run factor for the game. A bunch of poor pitchers tossing meatballs in a hitter’s park is a recipe for disaster, so I’ll shoot my shot with the Over 9 (-105) available at FanDuel Sportsbook.