MLB parlay picks May 1: Fade offence in Yankees vs. Guardians matchup

There may not be a ton of MLB games going tonight, but there’s more than enough to help us build a three-leg MLB parlay.

The pregame narrative: We’re fading early offence between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, as well as offence in general between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees. But one player we’re not fading is Toronto Blue Jays slugger Matt Chapman.

Find all our MLB parlay picks for May 1 below.

MLB odds as of 12:55 p.m. ET on 05/01/23.

MLB parlay picks

Parlay: CHC/WSH under 2.5 runs - first three innings + Chapman over 0.5 hits + CLE/NYY under 9.5 runs (+280)

CHC/WSH under 2.5 runs - first three innings (-120): Tonight’s pitching matchup at Nationals Park features a pair of starters who are rolling so far this season, giving us reason to fade offence in the early stages.

Chicago’s Drew Smyly (2-1, 3.21 ERA) is two outings removed from a perfect game bid that lasted into the eighth inning. He’s held each of his past four opponents to one or fewer runs at the F3 mark.

Washington’s MacKenzie Gore (3-1, 3.00) is one of the few bright spots on a rebuilding Nationals squad. The young lefty has held all five of his opponents to one or fewer F3 runs.

The Cubs had one of the league’s hottest offences out of the gates, but they’ve slowed down significantly (4.0 runs per game over their past eight games). We expect the pitchers to have the upper hand early on tonight.

Other parlay picks

Chapman over 0.5 hits (-278): As mentioned in our Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop bets, we’re particularly bullish on Chapman tonight based on his matchup. He’s 5-for-5 against Boston starter Corey Kluber with two doubles and two homers.

And frankly, asking for one hit out of Chapman doesn’t feel like much no matter who’s on the mound. The third baseman is the AL batting leader (.384) and is riding a seven-game hit streak.

He has at least one hit in 21 of 27 games (77.8%) this season.

CLE/NYY under 9.5 runs (-195): Two of the coldest offences in baseball meet in the Bronx tonight, so betting on a teased-up under feels like the right move.

Over the past 15 days, the Guardians (.626 OPS) and Yankees (.598 OPS) rank 28th and 30th, respectively in OPS, according to MLB.com.

These teams have combined to hit the under in 34 of 57 games (59.6%), and they’ve both fallen under this line in eight of their past 10.