Cubs vs Astros Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

20 May 2023

The Cubs will send ace Justin Steele to the hill at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday night, presenting some solid wagering opportunities. With Cristian Javier countering for the Astros, there's one wager that stands out above all, per our MLB betting picks.

The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs play the second of a three-game series on Tuesday night.

The Astros took Game 1 of the series last night and extended their hot streak. Houston has won four of their previous five games, and has built some momentum after a slow start.

The Cubs have improved this season, and that's timely, considering the NL Central looks up from grabs. However, they've hit a bump in the road as of late. In its previous series, Chicago lost the final two games to the Minnesota Twins by a combined score of 18-4. The loss last night extended their losing streak to three games.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Astros on May 16.

Cubs vs Astros odds

Cubs vs Astros predictions

While I'm seeing some value on the Chicago Cubs here at a plus-money price and betting it accordingly, there is a better direction for my best bet. I'm headed to the derivative market for that.

While I expect the Cubs to come out strong with added motivation, I don't expect it to be in the first inning. This isn't a bet that I make a ton — as I rarely see value in these lines — but for tonight's game, there is an exception. I made the price of a scoreless first inning at -165, so I'm seeing some solid value on the number available and will make it my best bet.

The Cubs side of this is a relatively simple one. Chicago has just started slow all season.

They are 25th in baseball in first-inning runs scored, and haven't scored one over their last three games. They'll be going against a pitcher in Cristian Javier who is appearing to hit his stride as of late.

Javier's last outing was an electric one, and Houston Astrosmanager Dusty Baker praised him by simply saying, "he was excellent." It came against the Los Angeles Angels, and it was a performance that saw him fan 11 batters and allow just two earned runs. While I think the Cubs can eventually get to him, it probably doesn't come early, and I expect him to build on that performance. It also helps that none of the first three Chicago batters have ever had a single hit against Javier with just over a combined 10 career at-bats.

On the other side, I could talk about the numbers, like Justin Steele hasn't allowed a single first-inning run this season. Or I could talk about the Astros' struggles against lefties this season (which I'll do in more detail below), but this comes down to the spot. The Cubs are in the midst of a slide at the moment, and they'll turn to both their ace and a pitcher that's having his best season to date — I'm expecting him to deliver at the moment. It's been 18 starts since Steele has had a bad one, and I don't see it happening in this spot. Avoiding that bad start, of course, starts with a scoreless first inning.

Back one of the sweatiest bets in sports here. Even if the -140 price seems a bit juicy, there's still a considerable edge, given the matchup we have.

My best bet: No run first inning (-140 at bet365)

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Cubs vs Astros moneyline analysis

The first five inning value on Justin Steele is just too much to pass up. So I'm playing a unit on the Cubs F5 moneyline at the price of +144 on bet365.

The Cubs need a win and will be desperate to start things strong tonight. In addition to that, my projections had this priced at +110, so there's some considerable value there.

I've mentioned Chicago's offensive struggles as of late, but Houston's are worth diving into.

Over the past seven days, they've ranked 26th in wRC+ and 25th in SLG+. Its numbers collectively have also been down against lefties so far this season. The Astros are just 18th in baseball in average against left-handed hurlers this season and 18th overall in runs. We're getting the better pitcher with a strong matchup at a plus price, and I can't look past that.

Cubs vs Astros Over/Under analysis

This total opened up at 8, and I projected the number at that. So, consequently, I'm staying away from a side here.

I talked a little about Javier's struggles, and it's evident that Steele is due for some negative regression. However, you'll need both teams to do their part here to get this Over, and I need to be sold more that it's in the cards.

Steele has been sensational to start this season, and while he's due for regression, he's also coming off his worst start of the season — you'd think he'd bounce back from that nicely. On the other side, Javier started slowly but seemed to be building positive momentum. Likewise, the Cubs are in the midst of an offensive struggle, and I'll need to see them break out before I believe they'll do so anytime soon.

It's all situational, but I'll lean on my projections tightly lined with oddsmakers and stay away here.

Cubs vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Justin Steele (6-0, 1.82 ERA): This could be the best season to date in Justin Steele's young career. The 27-year-old lefty has been sparkling to start the season with a terrific ability to induce soft contact. Steele sits at the top of the league in both hard-hit and exit velocity rates. That said, you have to wonder if some regression is coming soon. Steele is terrific, but an expected ERA that sits over 3.00 looms large here. He's coming into this matchup off his worst game of the season, where he gave up three earned runs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cristian Javier (3-1, 3.47 ERA): Javier's season so far indicates what we've seen from the Astros as a whole. He's started a bit slow and off from his career numbers, but may be getting into a groove now. Unfortunately, Javier has been a victim of the barrel and, to a lesser extent, the hard-hit ball overall. With that said, he's had more luck inducing soft contact, and is coming off two solid back-to-back outings.