Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, Odds

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20 May 2023

Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, Odds

Both the Cubs and Phillies are out of sorts right now, but Marcus Stroman might have what it takes to steer his squad back in the right direction. Check out our MLB picks in this battle for a get-right spot.

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The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies begin a three-game set Friday night at Citizens Bank Park with both clubs looking to snap losing skids. The Cubs come in winless in their last five outings while the Phillies have dropped four straight.

Pitching has been an area of concern for Chicago coming into this game but Marcus Stroman, who’s had a strong start to his season, will try to change his club’s fortunes in Philly.

Find out if Stroman can get Chicago back on track in our Cubs vs Phillies MLB picks and predictions for Friday, May 19.

Cubs vs Phillies odds

Cubs vs Phillies predictions

The Phillies dropped their fourth straight game on Wednesday in a 7-4 loss to the San Francisco Giants. Alec Bohm was arguably the lone bright spot for Philadelphia during that three-game set as he recorded a home run and four RBI to lead the team.

Philly, which ranks tied for 21st in the majors with 4.26 runs per game this season, has averaged just 2.50 runs per game over its four-game losing streak.

Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, who led the club with 94 RBI and 84 RBI, respectively, last season, have gotten off to slow starts. Schwarber is hitting just .175 with just 19 RBI while Realmuto has 19 RBI and just three home runs.

The Cubs have been a bit better offensively than the Phillies to start the season but it’s their pitching that’s let them down of late as the club ranks 23rd in May with a team ERA of 4.97. It’s been even worse over the last week as Chicago has surrendered a whopping 9.40 runs per game over its five-game skid.

The good news for the Cubs, though, is that Marcus Stroman has been pretty consistent on the mound this year. He was rocked for seven hits and six earned runs over just 2 2/3 innings against the Twins last time out, but Stroman has held his opponents to two runs or fewer in seven of nine outings this year with three scoreless starts along the way.

With the Phillies bats struggling and Stroman generally on point, look for Chicago to hold Philadelphia to another low-scoring effort.

My best bet: Phillies Under 3.5 runs (+135 at BetMGM)

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Cubs vs Phillies moneyline analysis

The Phillies opened as the -125 home favorite for tonight’s ballgame and saw their edge bump up a few points at most books by Thursday night. While you could make the argument that Philadelphia’s bats are overdue, I think the Cubs make sense as the road dog given the pitching matchup.

While Stroman ranks tied for the MLB lead with seven quality starts this season, the Phillies will send Ranger Suarez to the mound in just his second start after suffering an elbow injury prior to the World Baseball Classic. The right-hander was less than stellar in his first start against the Rockies on May 13, giving up seven hits and three earned runs over just four innings of work.

Suarez does have a great track record over the last few seasons in Philadelphia, but who knows how long it’ll take him to get back up to speed? I like the way Stroman has pitched despite the team’s struggles in front of him, and I think he’ll outduel Suarez in this one.

Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under analysis

The total for tonight’s game opened at 8.5 runs and I like the Under in this one given Stroman’s success, coupled with both clubs struggling at the plate.

The Over is actually 8-0 in the Cubs’ last eight outings but that’s almost solely a result of poor pitching, which should be negated by another quality start from Stroman. Meanwhile, the Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Chicago and Philadelphia.

As mentioned earlier, the Phillies have recorded just 10 runs in total over their last four games while the Cubs are averaging just 3.40 runs during their five-game losing streak — if those trends hold, we should see the clubs combine for fewer than 8.5 runs tonight.

Cubs vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Marcus Stroman (2-4, 3.24 ERA): Stroman had his worst game of the season last time out as well as his first start under five innings, but had allowed just five earned runs over 18 1/3 innings in his three starts prior. The right-hander made two starts against Philadelphia last season, giving up nine hits and two earned runs over 13 innings.

Ranger Suarez (0-0, 6.75 ERA): Suarez was just activated off the injury list less than a week ago and was rocked in his first start of the season. The left-hander was solid for the Phillies last season, though, posting a 3.65 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 155 13 innings of work. Suarez had one start against the Cubs in 2022, scattering seven hits and two earned runs over six innings.