Daily tennis tips: US Open best bets, betting analysis and accumulators Saturday September 2

Tennis betting tips: US Open, Saturday September 2

1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Nicolas Jarry v Alex de Minaur at 7/2 (Unibet)

1pt Alex Zverev to beat Grigor Dimitrov 3-0 at 9/4 (bet365)

Nicolas Jarry v Alex de Minaur

Sometimes something from the head-to-head record just grabs you and makes you take notice and this is one of those matches.

De Minaur, the favourite here, has won both previous meetings but what struck me was the fact that four of the five sets the pair have played have been tie-breaks.

Jarry’s first serve is a tough one to deal with and De Minaur has struggled on return.

Admittedly, both matches were a while ago so there’s a chance I’m reading too much into this but both men have been impressive improvers in 2023 and arrive at this contest in good form.

It hasn’t played as quickly as previous years in New York but on that front it’s worth noting that one of their previous matches came on the Solflex courts of Acapulco which are hardly known for their pace.

That match saw just two breaks of serve as De Minaur won 7-6 7-6, with Jarry winning 65% of points behind his second serve.

In short, a first-set tie-break here looks worth chancing at 7/2.

Alex Zverev v Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov may have brushed Andy Murray aside in the last round but the Briton wasn’t at all happy with his level and this should be a significant step up for the Bulgarian.

The thing for me here is that Zverev has dominated the head-to-head – he leads 5-1, winning the last five, with Dimitrov’s sole win coming back in 2014 when Zverev was just 17.

The German has also won 10 of their last 11 sets.

Now, I know Zverev has a reputation for taking the scenic route in the Slams sometimes but we’ve also seen Dimitrov lacking belief in big matches on plenty of occasions in the past - he’s 3-32 against the Big Three and while I’m not putting Zverev in that class, it makes my point.

Too often he’s been unwilling (or unable) to try different tactics to break the mould and I think it’s worth backing the straight sets win for the favourite here given the price of 9/4.

Posted at 1020 BST on 02/09/23

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