Tennis betting tips: Day seven predictions for the 2023 ATP Finals featuring Djokovic v Alcaraz
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals day seven
1.5pts Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic to go three sets at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Daniil Medvedev to serve 15+ aces at 9/2 (bet365)
Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev (1330 GMT)
Two mouthwatering matches are on the order of play on Saturday at the ATP Finals with home hope Jannik Sinner taking to the court for the first of them.
He’s been in excellent from this week and was the only player to post a 3-0 win-loss record in the group stage.
The highlight was a three-hour victory over Novak Djokovic, his first against the world number one, and that will give him plenty of confidence for also overturning a poor head-to-head record in this match-up.
Medvedev leads 6-2 overall with the tally 5-1 on indoor hardcourts. However, significantly, Sinner has won the last two meetings and both have come during the post-US Open period, one of them indoors in Vienna.
Both have been very close matches and while on form I’d be edging towards Sinner here, there is no way Medvedev should be ruled out.
Straight-sets wins over Andrey Rublev and Alex Zverev sent him into the semis before his meeting with Carlos Alcaraz yesterday so perhaps motivation levels weren’t quite at their peak as the Spaniard triumphed 6-4 6-4.
I backed Medvedev in that match and while slightly disappointed with the outcome, Alcaraz really brought his A-game and delivered some superb winners too punch holes in the famous Medvedev defence.
Sinner will need to do something similar and he does have the tools to do so.
However, one advantage which could help Medvedev is the fact that Sinner has played two lengthy matches back to back, while all of his own have been straight-sets affairs.
To be honest, I’m a little torn here. Sinner at 4/6 is tempting but Medvedev has also played well this week and that head-to-head record may be changing but remains significant.
I’m going to sit on the fence, I’m afraid, in betting terms, although there is one bet I’m tempted by in the service markets.
Medvedev has served the most aces in every match these two have played with the margin a wide 13-5 when they met in faster-than-average conditions in Vienna last month.
It will be quicker still in Turin where these two met back in 2021 and on that occasion the Russian served 18 aces.
bet365 go 9/2 about Medvedev serving 15+ aces in this contest and that looks worth a small interest.
It will likely need the match to go three sets but that’s what happened in Vienna, while their Beijing clash almost did with that one been settled in two tie-breaks.
Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic (2000 GMT)
The rivalry between these two seems unlikely be a long one given the 16-year age gap but it’s one that’s already destined to go down in history.
They’ve met four times with three of the matches already assured of ‘classic’ status. The other was on course to, as well, only for Alcaraz to be struck down by cramp in June’s Roland Garros semi-final.
He had his revenge in the Wimbledon final, played out over five thrilling sets, while their two matches on the ‘regular’ ATP Tour have both gone to a final-set tie-break, the most recent clash coming in Cincinnati in August when Djokovic won from match point down.
In short, this is going to be must-watch sport.
Djokovic is the 4/6 favourite having scraped through his group. A final-set tie-break defeat to Jannik Sinner left him in trouble but, after overcoming Hubert Hurkacz’s great serving display, he got the result he needed from Sinner (against Holger Rune) to progress to this stage.
Alcaraz started poorly here, bemoaning the fast conditions after defeat to Alex Zverev. But he’s recovered with two straight-sets wins since and was particularly impressive in defeating Daniil Medvedev yesterday.
The youngster is certainly growing into the tournament and will attempt to bring out his full array of shots in this contest.
His dropshot is one of the best in the business, reminiscent of coach Juan Carlos Ferrero back in the day, while he’s capable of producing some stunning winners from wide positions thanks to his excellent movement which Tim Henman described yesterday as the best of all time.
I’m making sound like it could be easy for Alcaraz but of course the man down the other end is going to have plenty to say about the outcome.
The greatest of all time in my eyes, Djokovic won’t be easy to hit through and is a great problem-solver who won’t panic if he does fall behind.
Having seen what’s unfolded so far though, I do feel these conditions are faster than ideal for the Serb.
He struggled to get a read on Hurkacz’s serve and it’s notable that he’s been out-aced 11-2 and 9-2 in his last two meetings with Alcaraz. If the Spaniard serves well in these conditions, that could be an area where Alcaraz has the edge.
I think there’s maybe some value in the outsider here but the bet I prefer is for the match to go the full three sets.
As highlighted, three of their four previous meetings have gone the distance with momentum swings a regular occurrence.
Whoever wins, I doubt there will be much between these two so this looks the way to go.
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