Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak Betting Analysis and Prediction

UFC Vegas 65 is this weekend, with an exciting heavyweight bout headlining the event. Derrick Lewis (26-10) will be trying to get back in the winning column against upcoming contender Sergey Spivak (15-3) in the APEX. Let’s break down the Lewis vs Spivac Betting Analysis.

Last Fight Record

Lewis is coming off back-to-back KO losses to Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich earlier this year.

Spivak is coming off of back-to-back TKO wins over Greg Hardy and Augusto Sakai this year. 

Lewis vs. Spivak Betting Analysis

Derrick Lewis

Lewis is a fan-favorite fighter and will be a future UFC hall of famer. He is the knockout king of the company and will be remembered by his incredible comeback performances and great quotes in and out of the octagon.

He both lands and absorbs an average of 2.57 strikes per minute, with an average fight time of only slightly over 9 minutes. lewis is patient with his strikes, but throws them with the intent to end the fight every single time. 

Lewis’ 55% takedown defense will be tested this weekend with a certified elite grappler in Spivak. The pressure will be a lot to handle for Lewis, who has shown in his recent performances that he does have a give-up button after getting worn out in the octagon. 

Sergey Spivak

Spivak has turned into one of the most impressive heavyweights in the world. He will come in at very similar size to Lewis, but he holds the weight differently. He is going to be fast and have a lot of cardio in his back pocket to carry Lewis into deep waters.

Spivak is much more of a volume fighter. He averages 3.79 strikes per minute and absorbs 2.96. He also averages over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is his best form of offense in the octagon. He has a 63% takedown success rate in the UFC, which is pretty impressive, while averaging all those takedowns per fight. When he takes his opponent to the ground, Spivak isn’t really chasing a submission. He likes to damage fighters via ground and pound.

Being 10 years younger than Lewis, Spivak will enjoy a physical advantage over the 37-year-old. He will be quicker and much more youthful to the average eye in the cage on Saturday. This advantage is potentially one of the biggest factors in the Lewis vs Spivak betting analysis.

Updates

There are no updates for this main event bout. No injuries were reported to the NSAC. This will be both Lewis and Spivak’s third fight of the 2022 UFC fight schedule.

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak Betting Preview

According to UFC odds, Derrick Lewis is coming in as the +170 underdog. Spivak is the betting favorite at -200 right now. These aren’t surprising from the oddsmakers with the career trajectory of both these fighters. They are kind of going in opposite directions, and Lewis is serving almost as a gatekeeper of the top of the heavyweight division.

Lewis surprisingly, hasn’t done bad against great grapplers in the past. He knocked out Alexey Oleynik, and then followed by his spectacular KO of Curtis Blaydes; who is arguably the best wrestler in the division. 

The issue with his matchup against Spivak, is Spivak doesn’t really level change. He will find his timing and go in for a body-lock and then use his slick trips to get his opponent down. This will be a huge test for Lewis and his takedown defense and balance in the octagon.

Even though this is a 5-round fight, the over/under is set at 1.5 rounds. Both men want to finish their opponent as early as possible, and it is okay to expect this fight not going very long into the 5 scheduled rounds. 

Lewis vs. Spivak Betting Predictions

This is always tough to do this with Lewis being the kind of human and fighter that he is. But you have to pick Spivak in this matchup. After breaking down the Lewis vs Spivak betting analysis, the momentum behind this rising contender is just going to be too much for Lewis, who has his back against the wall of the top 15.

Spivak has the blueprint to beating Lewis now. If he starts out fast with a lot of pressure, Lewis can break inside that octagon. Lewis is going to be a stagnant target with not a lot of movement, and that is when Spivak thrives.

The pressure from Spivak will prove to be too much for Lewis in this stage of his career, at 37 years old. Of course, Lewis has the great equalizer, and he is due for that highlight finish, but that is just not enough to put any real amount of money on him this weekend. 

Expect Spivak to finish the UFC legend within the first 3 rounds of this one.

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