Diamondbacks-Cubs prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, September 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Chicago Cubs in the third game of a four-game series on Saturday, September 9. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field. Merrill Kelly (11-6, 3.22 ERA) will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and Justin Steele (16-3, 2.55) will pitch for the Cubs.

Chicago enters as -142 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Arizona coming in at +120. The run total is set at 7.

Diamondbacks-Cubs picks: Saturday, September 9

Injury report

Diamondbacks

N/A

Cubs

Out: SP Marcus Stroman (ribs), RP Michael Fulmer (forearm)

Starting pitchers

Merrill Kelly vs. Justin Steele

Kelly looked excellent in his most recent start, pitching seven innings against the Rockies and allowing just one earned run while recording 12 strikeouts. However, his home outings have largely been better than his road trips. In his most recent road start, he let up 12 hits and seven earned runs to the Dodgers in five innings.

Steele has not allowed a single run in his past 14 innings, which he compiled over two home starts. He recorded 12 strikeouts in eight innings against the Giants, and another eight in six innings against the Brewers.

Over/Under pick

The first two totals of the series were 8 and 1. With Kelly and Steele on the mound for this matchup, I like the under. The Cubs haven’t been able to get into an offensive rhythm this series, and the D-Backs face a pitcher who hasn’t allowed a run in his last two home starts.

Pick: Under 7

Moneyline pick

The Diamondbacks have won the first two games of the series, 6-2 and 1-0. I like the Cubs to get out of this mini-slump and win one today. Steele is a top-notch pitcher, and while Kelly won’t make it easy on the North Siders, he has weaknesses on the road. The Cubs scored 39 runs in the four games before this series, and if they can get some of that momentum back here, they can capture a much-needed win in the NL Central race.