Diamondbacks-Yankees prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 25

After rain in the tristate area interrupted things this weekend, the Arizona Diamondbacks (82-73) and New York Yankees (78-77) will wrap up their interleague series with a matinee at Yankee Stadium on Monday afternoon. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Arizona will send righty Merrill Kelly (12-7, 3.37 ERA) to the mound, while the Yankees counter with Clarke Schmidt (9-9, 4.65).

With just five games to go, the Yanks have been sealed their postseason-less fate in 2023, sitting 6.5 games out of the Wild Card spot in the AL. But Arizona is currently occupying an NL Wild Card spot by just half a game. How they finish this final stretch will go a long way in determining their postseason fate, with the Cubs hot on their tail.

This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the D-backs at -115 and New York at -105. The run total is set at 7.

Diamondbacks-Yankees picks: Monday, September 25

Injury report

Diamondbacks

Out: RP Scott McGough (shoulder)

Yankees

Out: RP Wandy Peralta (triceps), OF Jasson Dominguez (elbow), RP Keynan Middleton (shoulder), OF Billy McKinney (back)

Starting pitchers

Merrill Kelly vs. Clarke Schmidt

Kelly has been great in 2023 with a 12-7 record and an ERA of 3.37. He’s never faced New York as a starter, but in his last 41.2 innings of work he’s only allowed 20 total earned runs while racking up 46 Ks — and building a dark-horse case for some NL Cy Young consideration. He held the Giants to just one run over 6.1 innings in his last outing.

Schmidt’s 9-9 record and 4.65 ERA this season belie just how consistent he’s been for the Yankees amid all the turmoil in the team’s starting rotation. After posting a 6.84 ERA in April, he’s really settled in, and in his last seven outings he’s given up 24 earned runs in 36 innings pitched and racked up 33 strikeouts. He has never faced Arizona as a starter.

Over/Under pick

Both of the previous contests between these teams have totaled eight runs. Overall in recent weeks, New York has struggled to score runs and they likely won’t be putting many across the plate against Kelly today. Still, Arizona is fighting for its playoff lives so they’ll put the foot to the gas, making this number feel a bit too low.

Pick: Over 7

Moneyline pick

Again, this one is kind of simple. New York genuinely has nothing to play for at this point other than pride. The D-Backs are fighting to keep their season alive and has the far better pitcher on the mound this afternoon.