Diamondbacks-Phillies NLCS Game 4 preview: Pitching matchup, odds, x-factor, analysis
The Diamondbacks finally got their NLCS moment, a walk-off win that reminded them they belong in the postseason. They won’t get the same participation ribbon they got in 2007 just for showing up. They have a win, and it came with a highlight to play on the scoreboard before games for the next decade, and now they can get greedy.
The Phillies don’t care. Much. Another two wins, and they’re in the World Series. They’ll let the Diamondbacks have their moment, then come back and take a commanding 3-1 lead, in theory. One loss isn’t going to make them nervous about the big picture. It’s not going to make them that nervous. Maybe a little nervous.
Welcome to Game 4, where most of the pressure is still on the Diamondbacks, but a tiny sliver of the pressure isn’t not on the Phillies.
NLCS Game 4: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Start time: 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS
Pitching matchup: Joe Mantiply vs. Cristopher Sánchez
Game 4 pitching matchup
Diamondbacks: LHP Joe Mantiply
2023 stats: 2-2, 4.62 ERA, 39 innings, 28 strikeouts, 1.13 WHIP
Mantiply is the starter in name only. This is a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks, which reminds us all that it’s amazing that they’ve made it this far with just three starters. And considering the short leash they have on Brandon Pfaadt, it’s more like 2.75 starters. Yet they’re just three wins away from the pennant. Amazing.
Saying that they’re just three wins away is more than a little misleading, of course. Mount Everest is five-and-a-half miles tall, which isn’t that big of a deal. Heck, I went on a 10-mile hike last week! Except you know that those pesky details get in the way, and context is everything. Just like Game 3, this is as close to a must-win game as a team can have outside of an elimination game, and they’re going with Johnny Wholestaff. It’s not how they planned it; it’s how it has to be.
After Mantiply, though, the Diamondbacks will have options when it comes to absorbing the remaining innings. Eleven of Kyle Nelson’s 68 appearances this season were more than one inning. Ryne Nelson started 27 games, albeit with dubious results, so he should be good for at least one time through the order, if not two.
If they use just one of these options, that’s a half-Nelson. If they use both, that’s a full Nelson.
Slade Cecconi is another starter in the bullpen; he’s on the roster for this exact situation. He can give the Diamondbacks several innings if the matchups and effectiveness are there.
They’d feel better if they had another Zac Gallen, but considering that the best starting pitcher for them in this series was Brandon Pfaadt, by far, maybe getting weird is exactly what they need.
Phillies: LHP Cristopher Sánchez2023 stats: 3-5, 3.44 ERA, 99 1/3 innings, 96 strikeouts, 1.05 WHIP
Sánchez reminds me of an old Sam Miller tweet:
The idea being that the Rays are so good at trading, that the particulars aren’t important. That tweet was from 2014, so they’ve been at this for a while. When they call and ask for one of your players, hang up.
Except that’s not always the case. They famously preferred Stephen Souza to Trea Turner in a three-way deal that could have been a two-way deal, and they gave Sánchez to the Phillies for Curtis Mead, a promising infielder who is still a work in progress. This might be the prospect-for-prospect deal that works out for both sides in the long term, but in the immediate future, the Phillies are sure glad they have Sánchez, who came up for good in June and was a mostly excellent pitcher down the stretch.
Over his last eight outings, Sánchez has thrown 41 innings, striking out 43 and walking just four. He’s a control monster who thrives on location and command, not pure stuff. If you’re reminded of Ranger Suárez, it’s for good reason, and you saw what he did to the Diamondbacks in Game 3.
Just like Suárez, the hook will be short. They won’t let Ketel Marte or Christian Walker get a third look at Sánchez, so while it’s not as much of a bullpen game as the Diamondbacks are going with, relievers will be featured prominently.
Game 4 X-factor
The Home Plate Umpire
I don’t think I’ve even come close to correctly identifying an X-factor yet. I’ve done a surprising amount of research on these sections, and they’re always completely irrelevant. Well, I’m not making that same mistake again. This X-factor comes with a No Research Guarantee™.
Home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski. He’s the X-factor. If you like somelinski, you’ll flip for Muchlinski. He’s on the inconsistent sidewhen it comes to home-plate umps, so maybe you’ll notice him.
As an X-factor, it beats “what if slumping player hits now?”
Notable Quotable
“He’s been throwing the ball very well, and I know there’s a lot of right hands in that lineup. But I have a lot of confidence in him. I don’t know how far we’re going to be able to go with him, but he’s been pitching very well and throwing strikes, and I have a lot of confidence in him.”
— Phillies manager Rob Thomson on why he’s going with Cristopher Sánchez as the Game 4 starter
(Top photo of the scene following Marte’s walk-off: Norm Hall / Getty Images)
