Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Prediction, Picks & Odds: World Series Game 1

sportsbookreview.com

27 October 2023

A World Series that fewenvisioned begins Friday night as the Texas Rangers host the ArizonaDiamondbacks, and we give our best prediction for the World Series Game 1between the Diamondbacks and Rangers based on the best MLB odds.

Want an idea of how unlikely this World Series matchup was? BetMGM had preseasonodds of +175000 for the Rangers to play the Diamondbacks for achampionship.

The Diamondbacks are appearing in their second-ever World Series(they won it in 2001), winning every series thus far without home-field advantageagainst the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Philadelphia Phillies. Arizona lost 110 games in 2021 and is the first team ever to reachthe World Series within two years of losing 110 games.

Like Arizona, Texas also won three consecutive series withouthome-field advantage against the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, and HoustonAstros. The Rangers are one of six MLB teams never to win a World Series,losing their two appearances in 2010 and 2011.

Hereis our best Diamondbacks vs. Rangers prediction for Game 1 of the World Series(odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a1-to-5-star scale).

Diamondbacks vs. Rangersprediction: World Series Game 1

Both Game 1 starters, Zac Gallen and Nathan Eovaldi, arewell-rested after not being used in their teams’ all-hands-on-deck approachesto Game 7 in the LCS.

Many will be down on Arizona’s chances in Game 1, consideringthe team lost both of Gallen’s starts against Philadelphia. Gallen was taggedfor nine earned runs in 11 combined innings in the NLCS while allowing fivehome runs. That is dangerous when facing the Rangers, whose regular-seasonOPS was 107 points higher at Globe Life Field than on the road while hitting 53more home runs in their home park.

However, Gallen struck out 17 Rangers and walked one in his tworegular-season meetings with them, and he held Adolis Garcia hitless in fiveat-bats with two strikeouts (he went 2-for-17 with five strikeouts againstArizona overall). That can't be understated, as Garcia followed up a .934 OPSin September with a 1.102 OPS and a .327/.352/.750 slash line through 12postseason games. Additionally, as long as leadoff man Marcus Semien’s struggles continue(he has a .192/.276/.231 slash line this postseason), Texas’s offensiveceiling lowers considerably if Garcia can't continue his superhuman efforts.

During the playoff run, Eovaldi is establishing himselfas one of the most dominant postseason pitchers we have seen recently. He hasrecorded a win in all four starts while pitching to a 2.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and9.7 K/9. And the fact that all of his postseason starts this year have beenquality starts suggests manager Bruce Bochy has the utmost confidence in him inan age when starting pitchers are getting removed from games more quickly thanever.

Eovaldi’s stuff+/location+/pitching+ playoff splits are96/106/105 after splits of 101/100/98 in the regular season. Therefore, he's more or less saved his best work for the postseason.

We are making the Under a confident four-star play, as the fourteams who had two-plus days off this postseason scored 10 total runs in theirfirst game after the long layoff. Thus, we expect the additional time between games to cool the bats.

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Diamondbacks vs. Rangers best odds

All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with a total of 8.0 runs, but there is quite a bit ofdifference in terms of juice on either side of the total. DraftKings is theonly shop offering plus-money for the Under, while FanDuel has a reverse splitand charges more than standard -110 vig to back that side.

This would be ano-play at 7.5, but based on the fact that four of our five best sportsbooks have the Over juiced, it is more likely the line increases to 8.5 than drops to 7.5.

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers odds

Severalsportsbooks, including DraftKings, opened with a total of 8.5 runs, but earlybetting action has driven the total down a half-run. The Over is 5-1 in theRangers’ last six games.

Thereis only a $3 difference in terms of moneyline odds for Game 1, as DraftKingsand FanDuel are at Rangers -162, while Caesars, bet365, and BetMGM have equal-165 odds. Underdogs are 7-0 in Texas’s last seven games.