Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks, Odds
While Julio Urias is in the midst of the worst season of his Dodgers career, the Mexican southpaw should have success tonight facing a Diamondbacks squad that has seriously regressed at the plate. Read more in our latest MLB betting picks.
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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks begin a two-game series at Chase Field on Tuesday night. The Diamondbacks began this season as one of the hottest teams in the majors but have cooled off as of late, going just 5-17 during the second half. That has allowed the Dodgers to build a four-game lead atop the NL West.
MLB odds opened with the Dodgers as -155 road favorites with the Over/Under listed at 9 for this divisional matchup. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks on August 8.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks predictions
Left-handed starter Julio Urias has struggled at times this season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and a hamstring knocked him out of the lineup for a few weeks in June. That said, he has pitched better lately and has been sharp in four of his last five starts, with the lone exception coming against the Orioles back on July 19.
Over the previous two seasons, Urias had pitched to a sparkling 2.57 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP across 360 2/3 innings, so his track record suggests that he will likely show improvement down the stretch. The 26-year-old has also been dynamite against the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting a 1.00 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP in six career starts at Chase Field.
The D-Backs had surprisingly been one of the more productive offensive teams in the majors before the All-Star break. However, their mediocre statcast analytics (currently 26th in the majors in barrel rate and 25th in the majors in hard-hit rate) suggested that regression was on the horizon. That regression has set in over the last 30 days with Arizona plating just 3.70 runs per game and ranking 23rd in OPS (.698).
Expect positive regression to set it for Urias during the season's final two months and bet the Under 2.5 on his earned runs tonight.
My best bet: Julio Urias Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-108)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay
Julio Urias Under 2.5 earned runs (-110)
Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 total bases (-160)
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-130)
Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll is still a massive -3,000 favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award, but he has gone ice-cold lately. Carroll is batting just .161 with a slugging percentage of .194 over the last nine games.
He's also struggled with a platoon disadvantage, slugging just .365 against southpaws this season. Don't expect Carroll to pick up more than 1.5 total bases tonight.
Meanwhile, Dodgers slugger Freddie Freeman is second in the majors with 264 total bases. The seven-time All-Star has been on fire lately, batting .429 and slugging an incredible .819 over his last 26 games.
He has also slashed .376/.436/.688 in 46 career games at Chase Field. Back him to go Over 1.5 TB against a Diamondbacks side that is starting struggling rookie Brandon Pfaadt.
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Dodgers vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers opened as -160 road favorites and their current moneyline price is sitting between -155 and -167. The O/U hit the board at 9.5 and remains essentially unchanged with the Under now juiced to about -120.
The Dodgers have been one of the best hitting teams in the majors all season and rank third in the majors in OPS (.798) and barrel rate (10%), while the Diamondbacks have fallen apart over the last month and they'll have a tough time picking up a win tonight with Pfaadt on the mound.
Pfaadt became the first minor-leaguer to strike out more than 200 batters in more than a decade last year but hasn't looked sharp in the bigs. He ranks in the Bottom 10th percentile in expected ERA (5.35), hard-hit rate, and barrel rate.
Even with Urias looking off this year, the Dodgers are 4-1 in his last five starts while the D-Backs are 1-4 in their previous five games with Pfaadt on the mound.
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Trend to know
The Arizona Diamondbacks have only hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 45 games at home (-17.30 Units / -33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
Starting pitchers
Pitcher (8-6, 4.69 ERA): Urias has been inconsistent this season but his WHIP still sits at an impressive 1.18. His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and walk rate all rank among the Top 20th percentile, and he pitched five innings of shutout ball against the A's in his previous outing.
Brandon Pfaadt (0-5, 7.11 ERA): Pfaadt entered this season as the No. 20 prospect in the majors according to MLB.com but has struggled as a rookie. The 24-year-old has pitched to a 6.65 FIP with a 1,44 WHIP across nine starts. That said, coaches have been adjusting his form since he was recalled from the minors at the end of July. Pfaadt is coming off his best career start, allowing just two hits through seven innings of one-run ball against the Giants last Thursday.
